FROM ARCHIVE... Saturday, 12 July 2014 05:21 DIMEJI BANKOLE: From Mr. Speaker to Mr Governor? - By T.K Adesola To run, or not to run? That is the million naira question that is, without a doubt, on the mind of Dimeji Bankole, former Speaker of the Federal House of Representativesthese days. But the question is not predicated on a return to the National Assembly for the former Speaker, but the Governor’s House of Ogun state. Given Dimeji’s bonafides: Son of Chief Alani Bankole an Egba Alake High Chief and top politician, loyal member of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a two time member of the House of Representatives and former Speaker to boot, it would appear that becoming the next governor of Ogun state should not be too difficult. Surely Dimeji Bankole is the “marquee establishment” candidate PDP has been waiting for. In addition, the PDP is on a high at the moment, after the party’s “shellacking” of the APC in the just concluded governorship election in Ekiti state. Party morale is high and confidence has been restored as the party looks to extend its winning streak to Osun state and beyond. However, for Dimeji Bankole, the road to the Governor’s mansion of Ogun state may not be as easy as Ekiti because it is strewn with many obstacles and pitfalls. First is the disarray within his party, the PDP, in Ogun state. The political party that was once a juggernaut in the state has been so factionalized that many of its top guns have left for the Labour Party and APC. While the party experienced “membership flight”, Bankole chose to stay and to his credit, maintained a neutral position in the battle for supremacy of the party in Ogun state between the Bhuruji Kashamu and former president Olusegun Obasanjo factions. Bankole’s “nonalignment” may work in his favour. He is a unifying figure, which is why a lot of members are willing to support his candidacy while those who have decamped have signified their interest to return should he get the nod. However, it is this “nod” that has been quite elusive for Bankole due to the staunch refusal of Bhuruji Kashamu to accept him. Chief Kashamu is the man whom President Goodluck Jonathan, over the strong objections of Chief Obasanjo, inexplicably handed the PDP over to in Ogun state. Second is the emergence and growing popularity of the Labour party in Ogun state. The party is essentially made up of former members of the PDP who left the party in 2011 with former Governor Gbenga Daniel. Some analysts believe the Labour party (LP) is so strong now in the Gateway state that it is being hyped as the party to beat. The raison dêtre for the growing confidence of LP’s supporters is traceable to the weakness of the PDP and the crisis within the ruling APC from the rancorous hostility between Governor Amosun and Chief Olusegun Osoba, which continues to deepen and may not be resolved in time before elections early next year. Indeed, it does appear that the Labour party has been the beneficiary of the crisis in both the PDP and APC as its ranks continue to swell on a daily basis. The fact that former Governor Gbenga Daniel is the arrowhead of the party is also a decisive factor. Dimeji Bankole recognizes these facts and together with his father, Chief Alani Bankole, has begun “wide consultations” with leaders of both Labour and PDP. Bankole has held not less than three very discreet meetings in the last few weeks with Otunba Gbenga Daniel to solicit the former governor’s support. However, the response of the former governor to Bankole’s overtures has not been very encouraging. Sources close to the former Speaker told this reporter that while Daniel welcomed the idea of Bankole’s ambition, he flatly refused to leave the Labour party for the PDP to “actualize” the former Speaker’s desire to become the next governor of Ogun state. He bluntly told him that the only way he can fully support Bankole is for him to join the Labour party. However, given Dimeji’s prominent position in the PDP and the “experience” of Segun Oni, the former governor of Ekiti state who defected from PDP to APC only to be left with the “short end of the stick” after Fayose’s victory, Bankole is understandably reluctant to leave PDP for any other political party at this time. In any case, it is common knowledge that Otunba Gbenga Daniel already has his own “candidate” for the governorship position in Gbenga Nosiru Isiaka (GNI). A member of the Labour party who is very close to the former governor disclosed that Isiaka is without question Daniel’s candidate and all other aspirants like Sarafa Ishola, Sina Kawonise, Yanju Lipede, Adesina et al, are merely pretenders to the throne. According to him, “Daniel will impose Isiaka on Labour period”. Still, what Bankole has in his favour is that of all the candidates, he may have the best chance of dislodging Amosun. He has name recognition, proven administrative experience and hefty financial muscle required to embark on a statewide campaign and take on Governor Amosun of the APC. Observers point to the imposition of candidates as one of the reasons why the democratic process in Nigeria continues to suffer severe hiccups. They argue that political leaders merely pay lip service to the democratic model and are disingenuous when they accuse opponents of “undemocratic” political tactics while they impose candidates on party members to the detriment of the development and sustainability of positive democratic tenets, ideals and good governance in Nigeria. Conversely, others contend that there is a clear nexus of this practice with the abysmally poor living standard of many Nigerians and so long as this is the status quo, those who have copious amounts of money to throw around will continue to dominate the political process and impose candidates. Per Second News gathered that the third obstacle confronting Bankole is, of course, the “Obasanjo factor”, and this is where it gets complicated. It is not that Obasanjo is totally against a Bankole candidacy, it is just that the signals coming from the former president are not clear. Here’s what we know. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo loves Governor Ibikunle Amosun who is of the APC “extraction”. However, Obasanjo is a “PDP man” who has openly asked President Goodluck Jonathan not to seek a second term. Jonathan in retaliation stripped Obasanjo of any influence in PDP affairs in Ogun state. General Obasanjo, no less combative replied by directing his supporters to move to the APC and support Amosun. Amosun by the way is Obasanjo’s kinsman. Both are Owu indigenes. But Chief Obasanjo, who holds the chieftaincy title of Balogun of Owu, has not formally declared for the APC. He is not likely to do so anytime soon. He is still a “leading leader” in the PDP. All these bring up the question of whether Obasanjo is being parochial in supporting Amosun. Accordingly, Dimeji Bankole may not receive Obasanjo’s support because the former president has an axe to grind with him, but for the protracted yet subtle vendetta between President Jonathan and Chief Obasanjo. From the foregoing, it may be true that Obasanjo has little or no say in PDP matters anymore, but those who think that would continue to be the case are way off base. The fact of the matter is that President Jonathan would give anything to get his predecessor’s endorsementandsupport for his second term and if returning PDP leadership in the South West back to Obasanjo’s faction is what is required, he would gladly do so. The major beneficiary of that realignment could be Dimeji Bankole. What President Jonathan knows, which is quite elementary really, is that Olusegun Obasanjo continues to play a prominent role in both national and international affairs, so he cannot be ignored. Put simply; Olusegun Aremu Obasanjo has a value. But as one prominent politician noted; “unfortunately in the realm of party politics, the value of Chief Obasanjo is not of the electoral kind, but more of the “troublesome variety”. In other words, while the former president may not be able to influence the outcome of an election, he can disrupt it or prevent the nomination of a candidate. Consequently, Dimeji Bankole cannot air brush Obasanjo away but continue to woo him even if only because of his “bull in- a – china - shop value” and nothing else. The paucity of Obasanjo’s “electoral pull” may be behind the thinking of the opposition, which may be spot-on, that a coalition of similar interests can defeat Governor Amosun with or without the support of the former president. A veteran journalist who offered his views on the political situation in Ogun state recalled that “when Segun Osoba was seeking the governorship under the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1991, Obasanjo was dead set against him. But a trio of political leaders in Ogun state worked around Baba behind the scenes to ensure Osobas acceptance by IBB. By the time General Obasanjo began his clandestine moves against Osoba, it was too late. More recently, when Gbenga Daniel vied for Ogun state governorship under the PDP banner, while Obasanjo was president; his support was lukewarm at best. He was very skeptical about the chances of Daniel against Osoba. A lot of hubbub was generated about how Obasanjo used the enormous power of the presidency to stifle the opposition and swing the 2003 gubernatorial elections in the South West in favor of the PDP. That is a canard. The truth was that Daniel and his colleagues in other South Western states worked very hard at the grassroots without that much contribution from Obasanjo or the presidency, like Ayo Fayose successfully demonstrated recently in Ekiti state. “Indeed, if OGD had depended on Obasanjos support in 2003 to clinch the governorship in Ogun state, he would have lost woefully. Obasanjo believed that Osoba was unbeatable. As a matter of fact, he was totally in the dark about the extent Daniel had gone in winning the hearts and minds of the people. However, when his vice president, Atiku Abubakar attended a mega rally in Abeokuta a few weeks before the election, and he saw the mammoth crowd that turned out for Daniel, he ran back to Abuja to inform Obasanjo that Daniel was truly on ground. It was only at that point that Obasanjo believed Daniel had a good chance of defeating Osoba”. Dimeji Bankole has an absolutely good chance of becoming the next governor of Ogun state if he can tactfully navigate through these “obstacles”. But even If he can do so successfully, he must build up his credibility substantially as a candidate, articulate a vision of what he believes while messaging that vision in the right way and propose real solutions to the innumerable social and economic problems confronting the people of Ogun state. After all, that is the essence of the democratic creed: Present yourself for service and acceptance through the ballot box by majority of the people and not to a handful of elite “kingmakers”.
Posted on: Thu, 23 Oct 2014 19:51:39 +0000
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