FROM: PETER CRUZ DATE: 22nd Jan., 2015 – Thurs. Market Brief The USD/JPY lacks a clear direction in quiet trade ahead of the closely-watched ECB policy setting meeting later today, says Yuzo Sakai, manager of FX business promotion at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow. The USD/JPY was “flow-driven” until mid-morning, with some investors buying USD to send the pair to as high as 118.16. But then the pair (now a 118.06) lost momentum as the benchmark Nikkei stock index trimmed earlier gains, says Mr. Sakai. “I don’t think the Y118-level is a level (cheap enough) to lure investors to buy (the USD) in a positive manner,” says Sakai. The EUR/USD is likely to consolidate with risks skewed to the downside Thursday as markets await 1245 GMT ECB monetary policy decision. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday a proposal from the ECB’s executive board that called for monthly bond purchases of roughly EUR 50 billion, lasting for at least one year, suggesting bond purchases could amount to at least EUR 600 billion. EUR/USD undermined by prospect of large-scale ECB quantitative easing; positive dollar sentiment; concerns that that the Greek anti-austerity left-wing Syriza party cold win snap elections on Sunday and renege on the country’s reform program. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels; five- and 15-day moving averages declining. Support at 1.1540- 1.1530 band (Tuesday’ low-Monday’s low); breach would expose downside to 1.1459 (Friday’s 11-year low), then 1.1375 (Nov. 7, 2003 reaction low). Please be cautious… “Remember the old cliché?” “BUY ON RUMOURS AND SELL ON FACTS” On the data slate there’s UK Public Finances; UK Central Government NCR; UK Public Sector Net Borrowing; Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence; Euro-Zone ECB Rate Decision; US Initial Jobless Claims; US House Price Index; US Crude Oil Inventories and US Kansas City Fed. Manufacturing PMI. BUY EUR/USD @ 1.1550 OR BETTER - STOP @ 1.1480 – TARGET @ 1.1703 – no change BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5150 OR BETTER – STOP @1.5070 - TARGET @ 1.5320 – no change SELL USD/JPY @ 118.40 OR BETTER – STOP @ 119.10 – TARGET @ 116.80 – no change BUY CL0315 @ 46.50 OR BETTER – STOP @ 45.60 - TARGET @ 51.50 – no change BUY XAU @ 1295 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1285 - TARGET @ 1320 – no change BUY XAG @ 18.00 OR BETTER – STOP @17.30 – TARGET @ 20.00 – no change GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING PLS. NOTE: 1. ALWAYS REMEMBER TO PUT STOPS WHENEVER YOU TRADE, MARKETS ARE VERY VOLATILE. 2. THE ABOVE BRIEF IS MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY PROMISES OR GUARANTEES OF PROFITS. TRADING IN CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES ARE HIGH RISKS AND IT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE.
Posted on: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 03:52:59 +0000
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