FROM: PETER CRUZ DATE: 26th Jan., 2015 – Mon. Market Brief Extra BOJ easing action by April now looks inevitable given that it will be impossible for the bank to meet its new inflation outlook even after it was lowered last week, says SMBC Nikki chief economist Junichi Makino in a report. The BOJ brought down its hurdle for the fiscal year 2015 by setting its inflation outlook at 1%, down from 1.7% previously. But to achieve average CPI growth of 1 % in the fiscal year, inflation will need to grow to 2% toward the March 2016 end of the fiscal year to make up for low CPI growth in the first part of the year, he says. Core CPI growth is very likely to fall to 0 % through March on tumbling oil prices. Makino says the USD/JPY would need to shoot up to 180 to bring inflation to 2% in the space of a single year, and that’s “not a possibility.” December nationwide CPI results are due Friday. The EUR/USD, EUR/JPY are trimming earlier losses with investors covering their short positions, following the winning Greek leftist party, says Kenji Yoshii, FX strategist at Mizuho Securities. “We see a volatile movement over the short term. It would not be a surprise if the pair reaches 1.13,” says Yoshii. But the pair is vulnerable to fall back again even after bouncing back. The EUR/USD is now at 1.1165 after falling to as low as 1.1098, its lowest since Sept. 9, 2003. With nearly 93% of vote counted, the anti-austerity party is projected to win 150 seats in Greece’s 300-seat parliament with the backing of 36.3% of voters. On the data slate there’s German IFO; UK BBA Loans for House Purchase and US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity. BUY EUR/USD @ 1.1180 OR BETTER - STOP @ 1.1065 – TARGET @ 1.1295 BUY GBP/USD @ 1.5005 OR BETTER – STOP @1.4950 - TARGET @ 1.5220 – no change BUY USD/JPY @ 1187.50 OR BETTER – STOP @ 117.10 – TARGET @ 119.40 BUY CL0315 @ 45.00 OR BETTER – STOP @ 44.60 - TARGET @ 47.50 BUY XAU @ 1295 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1285 - TARGET @ 1320 – no change BUY XAG @ 18.00 OR BETTER – STOP @17.30 – TARGET @ 20.00 – no change GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING PLS. NOTE: 1. ALWAYS REMEMBER TO PUT STOPS WHENEVER YOU TRADE, MARKETS ARE VERY VOLATILE. 2. THE ABOVE BRIEF IS MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY PROMISES OR GUARANTEES OF PROFITS. TRADING IN CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES ARE HIGH RISKS AND IT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 05:54:12 +0000
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