FROM: PETER CRUZ DATE: 6th June, 2013 – Thurs. Market Brief The EUR has been side-lined amid market talk that the ECB is set to keep rates on hold at Thursday’s policy meeting and with focus on the USD and upcoming data including Friday’s payrolls report. The bigger game in town is the Fed and the value of the US dollar and how QE is going to play out. Nomura notes that stock markets have undergone a correction globally over the past two weeks, with Japanese equities taking the biggest hit and the yen strengthening. While various reasons have been cited, including worries about a tapering of the Fed’s easing program, Nomura believes a more fundamental factor was also involved: “stocks had risen far above the level justified by improvements in the real economy.” The yen’s decline and the stock market gains that followed the announcement of Abenomics at the end of last year clearly outpaced the economic recovery, it says. “The period from late last year until mid-April was a honeymoon for Abenomics in which everything that could go right, did. However, the honeymoon was based on the assumption that the bond market would remain firm,” it says. “The recent upheaval in the JGB market signals an end to the virtuous cycle that pushed stock prices steadily higher. This means further gains in equities will require stronger corporate earnings and a recovery in the economy. On the data slate there’s Switzerland CPI; UK Bank of England rate Decision; UK BOE Asset Purchase Target; ECB Rate Decision; ECB Deposit Facility Rate and US Initial Jobless Claims. SELL EUR @ 1.3080 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.3150 – TARGET @ 1.2810 – no change SELL GBP @ 1.5400 OR BETTER – STOP @1.5465 – TARGET @ 1.5250 BUY USD/JPY @ 99.00 OR BETTER – STOP @ 98.50 – TARGET @ 101.00 SELL CL0713 @ 93.65 OR BETTER – STOP @ 94.00 - TARGET @ 91.45 – no change SELL XAU @ 1400 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1413 – TARGET @ 1385 SELL XAG @ 22.40 OR BETTER – STOP @ 23.00 – TARGET @ 21.20 – no change GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING PLS. NOTE: 1. ALWAYS REMEMBER TO PUT STOPS WHENEVER YOU TRADE, MARKETS ARE VERY VOLATILE. 2. THE ABOVE BRIEF IS MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY PROMISES OR GUARANTEES OF PROFITS. TRADING IN CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES ARE HIGH RISKS AND IT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 03:38:33 +0000
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