FXUS62 KFFC 021953 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 253 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CLOSED SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW PULLING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND MODELS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST GA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...BUT CLOSER TO 12Z. CAPE BEGINS TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WEDGE THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH. CAPES ALSO PEAK JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS OKAY. STRONG 850 MB JET COMING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO A FEW POSSIBLE SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FRONT EXITS EAST CENTRAL GA BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN MUCH ESPECIALLY NORTH GA. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT MINS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOWER TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE WEDGE AND THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTH INTO CENTRAL...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WEDGE EXPANDS. 41 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM EVENT...WITH ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE SATURDAY...AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 200-400 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING TO 300-500 J/KG AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLLOCATED SHEAR OF 30-35KT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS IN POPS...WEATHER AND QPF THROUGH SUNDAY...AS MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS DRY...COLD...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD AND DRY AND HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES BY 1-3 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS BY 3-5 DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS FROM DIPPING TO SUB ZERO LEVELS...BUT THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER AND IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS THIS MAY BE UNAVOIDABLE. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... 31 /ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015/ EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL/ISENTROPIC PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PLACING A GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. SBCAPE VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS PAINTING AROUND 300-400 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00-06Z SUNDAY...EXITING NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY 12Z SUNDAY BUT WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. BY 18Z SUNDAY...GFS INDICATING UPWARDS OF 600 J/KG SBCAPE IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. THESE CAPE VALUES ARE COLLOCATED WITH 30KT 0-1KM SHEAR. FOR THE 00-06Z PERIOD SUNDAY... SHEAR VALUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA ARE OVER 40KT. WITH THE LOW CAPE EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WEATHER WORDING AT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND CHANCE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUNDAY DAYTIME...BUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. SHERB PARAMETER DOES POINT MORE TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE. OTHER CONCERN IS QPF...SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. BEHIND THE FRONT...DEEP TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A COLD SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. A DRY REINFORCING FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH SOME REALLY COLD AIR POSSIBLE FOR MIDWEEK COMING DOWN WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PLUNGING OUT OF CANADA. WITH CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND DID NOT SPEND A GREAT DEAL OF TIME EVALUATING TEMPERATURES WITH THE SECOND SURFACE HIGH BUT IT DEFINITELY LOOKS COLD. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND BUT MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO START TRENDING COLDER. TDP && .HYDROLOGY... OVERALL AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH STORM TOTALS AROUND 2.00 TO 2.25 NORTHERN THIRD. THE CHANCE FOR THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE ANY FLOOD PROBLEMS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...NO HYDRO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED. && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... AREAS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO THUNDER EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR THIS AFTERNOON. IFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT TO 6-8KTS AND 8 TO 12KTS SATURDAY MORNING. //ATL CONFIDENCE... 18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON TIMING AND LEVEL OF LOWERING CIGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 45 53 53 62 / 90 70 100 80 ATLANTA 45 56 56 61 / 90 60 100 80 BLAIRSVILLE 46 52 51 56 / 90 80 100 80 CARTERSVILLE 46 55 54 58 / 90 80 100 80 COLUMBUS 52 68 62 65 / 60 50 100 80 GAINESVILLE 44 51 51 59 / 90 80 100 80 MACON 50 62 62 68 / 50 50 50 80 ROME 44 57 55 57 / 90 80 100 70 PEACHTREE CITY 45 58 58 62 / 80 60 100 80 VIDALIA 53 71 63 72 / 30 40 30 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...31 daculaweather
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 19:53:57 +0000
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