FXUS62 KFFC 101129 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 730 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... /ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/ MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE IN A FAIRLY FAST FLOW. THIS HAS MADE POP FORECASTING A CHALLENGE. WILL HOLD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA THROUGH SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF NORTH GA. CENTRAL GA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE RISK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS FOR CENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER NORTH GA TODAY...SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ALSO ON SATURDAY...FOR EXTREME NORTH GA. 17 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... /ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014/ EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...PWATS WILL INCREASE AND COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AS TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ATWELL && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS ACROSS EAST GA TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD BUT ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ATL/PDK WILL BE SCT-BKN005 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES INTO PLAY CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z TO 18Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH GA...MAINLY NORTH OF ATL/AHN...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF ATL/AHN AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM...AND SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND REMAIN WESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MORNING STRATUS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 85 66 83 64 / 40 30 20 30 ATLANTA 85 69 82 65 / 30 20 20 30 BLAIRSVILLE 77 62 75 55 / 60 60 50 30 CARTERSVILLE 84 64 80 61 / 50 30 40 30 COLUMBUS 88 68 86 66 / 10 10 10 10 GAINESVILLE 81 67 79 63 / 50 40 40 30 MACON 87 64 86 61 / 10 10 10 10 ROME 83 65 81 61 / 60 30 50 30 PEACHTREE CITY 85 65 84 62 / 20 10 20 20 VIDALIA 87 68 88 65 / 5 5 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....ATWELL AVIATION...17
Posted on: Fri, 10 Oct 2014 11:31:11 +0000