FXUS62 KFFC 141137 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 737 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT BUT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO APPROACH TOWARD THE EXTENDED. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS IN PLACE /SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW/. CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE TRANSITION FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY...SHOULD SEE A PRETTY MARKED INCREASE IN LOW TEMPS FROM WHAT WE HAVE THIS MORNING VS SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS...PROBABLY AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER IF NOT 15 IN SOME AREAS. ECMWF DOES WANT TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS DRY SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AFTER THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...CONTINUING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT MIDLEVEL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING TROUGH LEADS TO WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BUT AGAIN NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY NICE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT A BIT MUGGIER WITH CONTINUED INCREASING MOISTURE. TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM... HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THAT ANYONE WILL ACTUALLY SEE ANY POPS BUT SEEING AS HOW MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS RAPIDLY AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EXTENDED...HAVE TRIED TO SHOW A RAMP-UP IN POPS ACCORDINGLY. FOR NOW...PRETTY MUCH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF ON SATURDAY /DECENT SURFACE-BASED LAPSE RATES BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH CORRESPONDING SURFACE MOISTURE QUITE YET TO LIFT PARCELS/ SO HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME. TDP LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND SOLUTION WHICH IS GIVING A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTING A SURFACE LOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SPREAD AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS KEEP PRECIP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. 17 FIRE WEATHER... FUEL MOISTURES DRIED TO BELOW 8 PERCENT EVERYWHERE YESTERDAY AND BELOW 6 PERCENT IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 25 PERCENT OR BELOW FOR 4 HOURS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA MISSING OUT ON THAT ACTION. WITH THAT...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA...EXCEPT FOR THAT NORTHWEST CORNER. WINDS REMAIN TOO LIGHT FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT STILL A LITTLE BREEZY. TDP && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN BY 18Z TODAY LOWERING TO AROUND 10KFT AFTER 00Z. WILL PROBABLY SEE SCT 4-5KFT CU SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED THAT AT ATL STARTING 15Z. OVERALL MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND SUNRISE...SWINGING TO SW BY AROUND NOON AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS LIGHT EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO JUST UNDER 10KT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 5KT FRIDAY NIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. TDP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 66 43 71 51 / 0 5 10 90 ATLANTA 65 48 67 52 / 0 5 20 100 BLAIRSVILLE 60 39 65 49 / 0 5 20 100 CARTERSVILLE 65 42 69 52 / 0 0 20 100 COLUMBUS 68 46 71 55 / 0 0 20 90 GAINESVILLE 63 45 67 52 / 0 5 20 100 MACON 68 42 71 52 / 0 0 10 70 ROME 66 42 69 52 / 0 0 20 100 PEACHTREE CITY 65 41 68 51 / 0 0 20 100 VIDALIA 69 47 73 56 / 0 0 5 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY... BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP... DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL... FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK... GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON... HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN... MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE... OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK... PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING... STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON... WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER... WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON. && $$
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 11:37:58 +0000
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