FXUS62 KFFC 240255 AAB AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 955 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF N GA LATE TONIGHT...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FOR SOME AREAS OF THE FAR NW...STILL LIKELY BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... DIFFICULT FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GULF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINES WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST MODELED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RAIN SNOW MIX TO BEGIN IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS EARLY AS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE BETWEEN 09-12Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA /GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET/. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ANTICIPATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH 0.5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE HI-RES MODELS ADVERTISE BANDING COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH ROADWAYS WOULD REMAIN WET. LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT SEE THE TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANYTHING STICK. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPDATED THE LATEST SPS TO INCLUDE A FEW ADDITIONAL COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE ORIGINAL SPS /GENERALLY FROM ROME...TO CANTON...TO CLEVELAND...NORTHWARD/. FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WHERE THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...BLACK ICE MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. REGARDLESS...DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION DUE TO THE WET ROADWAYS. DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING HIGH...EXPECT ROAD SURFACES TO DRY QUICKLY. SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL MELT BY THE AFTERNOON. 31 LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP MONDAY MORNING. 00Z AND PREV GFS/ECMWF RUNS NOW APPEAR ON A TREND FOR A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE PROGGED FOR MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ABOUT THE SAME BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LIFT AND A LITTLE STRONGER FLOW IN LOW LEVELS TO ASSIST WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT...COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAINLY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500FT NORTH OF ROME TO GAINESVILLE LINE...WHERE TEMP PROFILE AND LIFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT DRY ABOVE 850MB DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND DRY SLOT WHICH ARE TYPICAL WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS THAT TRACK DIRECTLY OVER OR TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY DOMINATE AND LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TO WEST AND NORTHWEST ASPECTS AND AREAS SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM. EVEN THEN...OUR ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY POTENTIAL FOR AT MOST ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS BUT TYPICALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH SNOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS UNLESS THEY BECOME CLOSED OFF AND TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OUT...NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS. SHOULD BE BREEZY AND COOLER BUT CLEAR MON AFTERNOON AND REMAIN CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THUR NIGHT/FRI APPEARS PRETTY SLIM...WITH 00Z ECMWF SHOWING MORE ROBUST SYSTEM THAN GFS ALBEIT STILL WEAK. SNELSON/01 AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUING BUT DIMINISHING OR ENDING LATE. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND VSBYS IMPROVING LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS ENE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING WNW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... HIGHS CONFIDENCE ON CIGS TO START...MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT. MEDIUM FOR VSBYS TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. BDL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 39 50 33 57 / 70 20 0 0 ATLANTA 38 47 34 57 / 50 20 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 34 43 30 51 / 70 40 0 20 CARTERSVILLE 36 46 30 56 / 60 30 0 5 COLUMBUS 42 51 35 59 / 50 10 0 0 GAINESVILLE 37 47 33 54 / 60 20 0 5 MACON 44 52 32 59 / 80 10 0 0 ROME 36 47 30 56 / 60 30 0 10 PEACHTREE CITY 39 48 30 57 / 50 10 0 0 VIDALIA 50 55 37 60 / 80 30 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BDL daculaweather
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 02:56:05 +0000
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