FXUS62 KFFC 240545 AAD AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/ UPDATE... UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES LISTED BELOW. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INDICATING THE WEDGE IS STILL IN PLACE. DESPITE THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE WEDGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STILL BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS ARE SEEING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL GA...ANOTHER ROUND IS ALREADY MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THIS NEXT ROUND WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THAT THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT ALL THE POPS OVERNIGHT AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. BETTER INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO CREEP ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH 500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN ADDITION....THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LL WIND SHEAR WITH 40KTS ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA /CSG TO MCN TO LGR AREA/. WITH ENOUGH CAPE COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES...THE SE PART OF THE CWA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES REMAINS AND A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. STILL THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH...WATCH AREA IS JUST MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SEE WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THE WARMER TEMPS AS THEY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR TUESDAY MORNING...AFTER THE SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WILL START THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND MONDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING AND THE CWA REMAINING IN SW FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 11 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA...ALTHOUGH AT THOSE PEAKS ABOVE 3500 COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A FINGER OF MOISTURE SKIRTING THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS KEEPING THE CWA DRY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY PRECIP FOR EXTREME NORTH GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE H5 FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW. 17 HYDROLOGY... HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. HAVE NOT HAD ANY FLOODING ISSUES SO FAR. WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS... CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 14Z. MOST AREAS VFR BY 17-19Z. MAY SEE SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-10KT THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING TO 10-14KT W/ GUSTS 18-24KT AND BECOMING WESTERLY AFTER 14Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 54 70 41 57 / 100 20 10 10 ATLANTA 55 69 41 55 / 10 10 10 5 BLAIRSVILLE 50 64 36 52 / 100 30 10 5 CARTERSVILLE 52 67 37 54 / 10 10 10 5 COLUMBUS 60 74 44 57 / 10 10 10 10 GAINESVILLE 52 67 41 54 / 90 20 10 5 MACON 60 76 44 58 / 80 20 10 20 ROME 52 66 35 55 / 20 10 10 5 PEACHTREE CITY 53 69 38 56 / 10 10 10 10 VIDALIA 66 77 52 60 / 100 30 20 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...31 daculaweather
Posted on: Mon, 24 Nov 2014 05:45:56 +0000
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