FXUS62 KFFC 261918 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 218 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF GEORGIA WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. MORE IMPRESSIVE HAS BEEN THE DEWPOINT DROP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER 20S TO EVEN SOME UPPER TEENS MIXING DOWN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TO THE WEST...LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA IN ADVANCE OF SWIFTLY MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EARLIER THINKING LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGS WAS THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WOULD PRODUCE MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND PRECIP THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. UPSTREAM OBS HOWEVER HAVE YET TO BEAR THAT OUT WITH JUST A HANDFUL OF OBS OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS YIELDING PRECIP. WILL NOT PULL BACK COMPLETELY ON PRECIP JUST YET BUT WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN LACK OF PRECIP...SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH WINTRY PRECIP INITIALLY WITH A MIX STARTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND AT THE ONSET. BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES EVEN BRASSTOWN WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP MAKEUP FOR THIS EVENING WITH NO ACCUMULATION PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. AS WE APPROACH 12Z AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN...COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STICKING TO ROADWAYS GIVEN TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. THAT SAID...GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS...WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AT MOST AND LESS THAN ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING DAY AND COOL TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 40S. QUITE COLD WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH MID 20S FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA. SOME RECOVERING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO THE 50 DEGREE MARK. DEESE .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND...THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT INDICATED BY TUESDAY. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...A SURFACE FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO NORTH GA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. SOME DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOWN WITH THIS FRONT ENTERING NORTH GA WITH THE ECMWF THE STRONGEST. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE FAR NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDGE FORMING ON THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHICH ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 41 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. UPSTREAM CIGS HAVE BEEN MAINLY VFR BUT CROSS SECTIONS OF LOCAL TAF SITES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE TAKEN CIGS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THANKSGIVING...ESPECIALLY AT ATL WITH GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIG HEIGHTS TONIGHT. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS. DEESE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 35 52 28 50 / 10 5 5 0 ATLANTA 37 49 29 49 / 20 10 5 0 BLAIRSVILLE 32 43 25 49 / 50 30 10 0 CARTERSVILLE 33 48 26 49 / 20 10 5 0 COLUMBUS 38 54 30 54 / 5 5 5 0 GAINESVILLE 36 48 29 49 / 40 20 5 0 MACON 35 57 29 54 / 0 5 5 0 ROME 33 49 25 50 / 40 10 5 0 PEACHTREE CITY 32 51 26 50 / 20 10 5 0 VIDALIA 41 55 34 53 / 5 5 5 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEESE LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...DEESE daculaweather
Posted on: Wed, 26 Nov 2014 19:19:21 +0000
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