FXUS62 KFFC 312356 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 755 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND A WARMER FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. LOWER UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS PROVIDED HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GOING GOOD CHANCE POPS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. 31 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS FOR WET AS DEEP MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING LOWER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE GREATEST POPS OVER N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER N GA...WITH THE BEST MUCAPE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL GA IN THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BY 00Z MONDAY THE GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY. FAVORED THE FASTER GFS BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER OVER THE SE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS RUNNING 1-2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER N GA AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. AFTER THIS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY BUT MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 01 /ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED DEC 31 2014/ THE NEXT SYSTEM INCREASES MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY NW GA. THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAS DIMINISHED AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET BELOW 32. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FORECAST FOR WET WEATHER CONTINUES AS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN OVERRUNNING LOWER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE GREATEST POPS OVER N AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST SO OVER N GA...WITH THE BEST MUCAPE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL GA IN THE 200-500 RANGE. MAYBE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG...BUT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...IT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAN THE EUROPEAN. RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FOR SUNDAY AND THE GFS IS FASTER WITH DECREASING THE RAIN CHANCES THAN THE EUROPEAN. FAVORED THE FASTER GFS BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER OVER THE SE FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF TOTALS RUNNING 1-2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER N GA AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT THE GFS IS VERY QUICK TO SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL GA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN N GA TUESDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN DRY. FOR NOW WILL LEAN WITH THE DRY SOLUTION BUT THIS COULD CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN COOL BACK DOWN AFTER SUNDAY. BDL && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LIGHT NW-W SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. //ATL CONFIDENCE... 00Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 31 54 38 51 / 0 5 20 70 ATLANTA 32 54 40 49 / 0 10 20 80 BLAIRSVILLE 28 51 34 48 / 0 10 50 80 CARTERSVILLE 26 52 36 47 / 0 20 50 80 COLUMBUS 33 58 43 56 / 0 5 20 70 GAINESVILLE 33 53 38 49 / 0 10 30 80 MACON 31 57 40 56 / 0 5 10 60 ROME 25 51 35 47 / 0 20 50 80 PEACHTREE CITY 27 54 38 50 / 0 5 20 80 VIDALIA 36 59 43 61 / 0 5 10 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31/16 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...16 daculaweather
Posted on: Wed, 31 Dec 2014 23:56:44 +0000
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