FXUS62 KMLB 010120 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 919 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME STRONG CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT TO NEAR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT ALONG MAINLY THE ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTY COASTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR CALM OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE OVERNIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WILL UPDATE ZONES A LITTLE LATER ON TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING. THU...PREV DISC MODIFIED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/VORT MAX (THE MID LEVEL REMAINS OF DORIAN) MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. STEERING FLOW WILL BE CHAOTIC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BOTH TROUGHS...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST OR WEST. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES. && .AVIATION...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU MIDNIGHT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KFPR-KSUA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EDGE CLOSER TO CENTRAL FL ON TUE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY KTTS-KISM NORTHWARD. && .MARINE...OVERNIGHT-THU...SE/S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SSE/ESE WINDS ON THU AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. LONG PERIOD PERSISTENT SWELLS TO CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...SEDLOCK RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...SHARP PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 01 Aug 2013 01:20:21 +0000
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