FXUS62 KMLB 021327 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 927 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. UPSTREAM AT TAMPA AND TO OUR SOUTH AT MIAMI IT WAS STILL QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.86 AND 1.94 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. GPS DATA SHOWS A DRIER POCKET AT LEESBURG AND WATER VAPOR HAD A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING DRIER AIR LIFTING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS MOS THERE IS VERY LOW...AROUND 20 PERCENT...BUT THE GUIDANCE LOOKS ERRONEOUS IN HAVING THESE VERY LOW NUMBERS AREAWIDE. JUST BASED ON ITS OWN QPF FORECAST...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST CLIMO (40 PERCENT) POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL CONCENTRATES CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY MERGERS BECOME NUMEROUS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF 40 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH AND 30 PERCENT NORTH. THE TAMPA SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH IS ALREADY ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .AVIATION...(NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) MAINLY VFR. OFFSHORE (SW) FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE (E TO SE) AT SUA/FPR/VRB/MLB BETWEEN 16Z-18Z...AND A LITTLE LATER (BY 20Z) AT DAB. HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS CONFINED SOUTH OF MCO-TIX SO EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO BE GREATER THERE. CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER SW FL ASSOCD WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH STORMS/OUTFLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NE...WITH INTERACTION WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE 20Z-23Z. HAVE INDICATED VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS FOR NOW EXCEPT LEE AND DAB WHICH MAY STAY NORTH OF MAIN CONVECTION. && .MARINE...(NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FL AND PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE (E/SE) IN AN AFTN SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT...UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH S/SW WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WX...MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 02 Sep 2013 13:27:49 +0000
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