FXUS62 KMLB 120722 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 322 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS FOR AUGUST PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY REGION THAT MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH AND WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. LACK OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR A HOT AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT RELIEF AT THE COAST WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUE-THU...AN ELONGATED RIDGE...ALBEIT WEAKENING WILL PERSIST OVER THE PENINSULA TUE WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT TO FORCE SOME ISOLD AFTN STORMS MAINLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHCS AREAWIDE REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE ONGOING DRY PATTERN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S INLAND AND AROUND 90 AT THE COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A BREAK IN THE DRY STABLE PATTERN AL OCCUR AT MIDWEEK AS OVERHEAD HIGH PRESS WEAKENS FURTHER AS A BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EXERTS SOME INFLUENCE SWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND GULF COAST. ADDITIONALLY A ELY WAVE MOVG ACROSS CARIB AND SRN GULF AS ADVERTISED BY GFS/ECM SHOULD HELP MOISTEN UP SRN AREAS AS THE WAVE AXIS TRANSITS THE FL STRAITS INTO THE SRN GULF LATE WED AND INTO THU. HAVE INDICATED A STEADY INCREASE IN POPS FROM MNLY ISOLD WED INTO THE MORE SEASONAL SCT RANGE BY THU AFTN. REMAINDER OF WEEK...STATIONARY WAVEFORM ASCD WITH SLOW MOVING ELY WAVE OVER THE GULF REGION AS WELL AS NEARLY STATIONARY UPR WAVE OVER THE N GULF REGION AND SUPPRESSED ATLC RIDGE WL LEAD TO SCT RAIN CHCS EACH DAY WITH SLY COMPONENT FLOW AND DIURNAL STORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM WRT SFC FEATURES HOWEVER ADVERTISED HIGHER MOISTURE AND SUPPRESSED RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SEASONAL CHCS FOR PRECIP TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDS FROM PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. A LINGERING DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT TOWARD LAKE COUNTY WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE E/SE BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 2-3 FEET. REST OF WORKWEEK...WV HGHTS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4 FT SEAS OVER THE OUTERMOST WATERS AT MIDWEEK WITH PSG OF A TROUGH WED NIGHT EARLY THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 93 76 / 10 10 20 10 MCO 95 74 95 75 / 10 10 20 20 MLB 90 76 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 90 74 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 LEE 95 76 95 78 / 20 10 20 20 SFB 95 75 95 77 / 10 10 20 20 ORL 95 76 95 78 / 10 10 20 20 FPR 89 74 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WEITLICH LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 12 Aug 2013 07:22:27 +0000
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