FXUS62 KMLB 131453 AAA AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1045 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 .DISCUSSION... MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.40 INCHES. A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS TO OUR WEST (TAMPA) AND SOUTH (MIAMI) BASED ON THEIR SOUNDINGS AND THE CURRENT HI RES VIS SAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS AS CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD IS DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS FIRST. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THIS IS PRODUCING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL TURN ONSHORE IN A SEA BREEZE...FIRST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THEN LAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS AND WILL MAINTAIN 30 POPS FOR OKEECHOBEE...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN...20 POPS ELSEWHERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE INSISTING CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER NORTHERN BREVARD EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS SEEMS COUNTERINTUITIVE GIVEN THE DRIER AIR SEEN IN THE WEATHER BALLOON DATA FROM THERE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP FROM THE INDIAN AND BANANA RIVERS AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BUMP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR NORTH BREVARD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR...LOWER 90S VOLUSIA COAST AND MAINLAND COASTAL COUNTIES...UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. && .AVIATION... VFR. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE 10 KNOTS MLB-SUA BY 17Z. KDAB MAY SEE A LATE WIND SHIFT AFT 20Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AFT 18Z MCO NORTHWARD. HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST. STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. && .MARINE... LIGHT OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE (E-SE) NEAR THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD BY 1PM...AND PROBABLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST LATE. SEAS 2-3 FEET...EXCEPT AROUND 1 FT SOUTH OF FT PIERCE INLET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 20 MCO 94 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 20 MLB 90 74 92 73 / 20 10 20 20 VRB 89 73 90 71 / 30 10 20 20 LEE 94 74 93 75 / 20 10 20 20 SFB 95 74 95 75 / 20 10 20 20 ORL 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 20 FPR 89 73 90 71 / 30 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 13 Jun 2013 14:53:26 +0000
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