FXUS62 KMLB 141921 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 321 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT... AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SHIFT WEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE PAST SUNSET ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH INTERIOR. SOME DRYING ALOFT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. MON...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODEL DID THIS WITH PREVIOUS TUTT LOW AND IT DID NOT QUITE PAN OUT. STILL...THE MOS POPS ARE ONLY 30 PERCENT COAST AND 40 INLAND...WHICH AGREES WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGE. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TUE-TUE NIGHT...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GREATEST CHANCES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND. WED-SAT...BROAD AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALIGN ITSELF EAST-WEST JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THOUGH IT WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR A FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. THE OVERALL DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME DISRUPTED BY LATE ON THU WITH A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THU OVERNIGHT AND MORE SOUTHERLY BUT RATHER LIGHT BY FRI. STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS MAY VERY WELL BECOME OFFSHORE BY FRI/SAT AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST...THIS TREND MAY END FRI AND SAT OVERNIGHT. THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE FAVORED FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THU. A DAILY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY BUT INLAND MOVEMENT MAY BE SLOWED BY FRI-SAT. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... THERE WAS A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER THE SOUTH WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WERE CLOUDING OVER WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HEATING REMAINING. THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL PERSIST. FARTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF STRATIFORM LINGERING PAST SUNSET. OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY SO NOT SURE IF WE WILL HAVE A REPEAT OF IFR CEILINGS LATE...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS YET. EXPECT MORE OF A TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE REGIME ON MON WITH MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS OCCURRING INLAND IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE WATERS...WINDS WILL BACK FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. SPEEDS INITIALLY LOOK LIKE 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. MON-WED...RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS. SLIGHT SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO TUE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE TO SCATTERED WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF ISOLATED. THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE CLOSER TO THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE WITH A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE FLOW...PRODUCING PRIMARILY NIGHT/MORNING CHANCES FOR PRECIP...TO A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND ON FRI. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 87 75 89 / 40 30 20 20 MCO 72 90 74 91 / 40 40 20 40 MLB 74 88 77 89 / 40 30 20 20 VRB 72 88 75 89 / 40 30 20 20 LEE 73 91 74 92 / 50 40 20 40 SFB 73 91 75 91 / 40 40 20 40 ORL 73 90 75 91 / 40 40 20 40 FPR 71 87 75 89 / 40 30 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 14 Jul 2013 19:21:24 +0000
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