FXUS62 KMLB 141933 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013 .DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INLAND ALONG THE ECSB...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF I-95 FROM ABOUT BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTH. EARLIER OUTFLOW BDRYS FROM CELLS ALONG ECSB OVER THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST ENHANCED INLAND PUSH OF ECSB. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL RUN WITH PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ANTICIPATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES INLAND. LATER TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STARTS TO FRESHEN A TAD IN THE SFC-H85 LAYER...SO WE MAY SEE A FEW MARINE SHOWERS POP UP AND CREEP CLOSE TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT WAS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS EWD FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION ESE INTO FL AS H25 LOW DROPS OVER THE STATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION SPREADS SWD AND CREATES A STEADY LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/STORM ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING/VERY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FAST INLAND MOVING ECSB CARRIES ACTIVITY INLAND. ALSO LOOKS TO BE BETTER OVERALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SRN CWA AS ELEVATED MEAN PWATS START TO CREEP NWD. HIGHS UPPER 80S COAST TO LWR 90S INTERIOR. ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW WILL SPELL CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT COASTAL SHOWER...EVEN PERHAPS A STORM ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC DIVG/UVM GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW. MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS INTACT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND OPENS UP OVHD. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC COAST WITH ONSHORE ESE LOW LVL FLOW. MOISTURE LVLS WILL AGAIN BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN SECTIONS WHERE 40 PCT SHOWER/TSTM CHCS ARE EXPECTED WITH 30 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER POPS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST WHERE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND AND SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE LVLS ARE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS MID/EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION... TUE-THU...MID WEEK FORECAST LOOKS A BIT WETTER PER LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING AND CONTINUED INCREASING ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW. APPEARS SOME CONNECTION TO THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND FL STRAITS MAY TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS NWD TWD E CENTRAL FL...ESPEC BY WED. WILL BRING POPS INTO THE MID SCATTERED RANGE 40-50 PCT FOR MID WEEK WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST IN SPOTS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MID WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. HIGHS UPPER 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR. FRI-SAT...GFS/ECMWF ARE DIFFERING ON THE EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF NEXT MID LVL WAVE NEAR FLORIDA WITH GENERAL TRENDS PUTTING E CENTRAL FL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID-UPR LVL TROUGH AND SOME DRYING COMPARED TO MID WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE 30 PCT RANGE TO START NEXT WEEKEND...CLOSE TO GFS MOS. && .AVIATION...NO CHANGES FOR THE TIME BEING. ONGOING CONVECTION IS JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS IN THE TIX-MLB-SUA CORRIDOR SUCH THAT AMDS ARE NOT NEEDED. AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING AFD... VCTS BEGINS AT THE INLAND AERODROMES 21Z-22Z...WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD. && .MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 2-4FT WITH EAST GROUNDSWELL COMPONENT BY TUE...AND 3-5FT BY WED AS STRONGER SFC HIGH BUILDS SEWD FROM THE NERN CONUS INTO THE WRN ATLC. BUILDING SWELL SHOULD ALSO ELEVATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 89 74 88 / 20 20 20 30 MCO 74 92 74 91 / 20 30 20 30 MLB 77 88 78 89 / 20 30 30 30 VRB 75 89 77 89 / 20 30 30 30 LEE 75 93 75 91 / 20 30 20 30 SFB 76 92 75 91 / 20 20 20 30 ORL 77 92 77 91 / 20 30 20 30 FPR 75 88 77 88 / 20 40 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI LONG TERM....BRAGAW AVIATION...CRISTALDI PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 14 Sep 2013 19:33:55 +0000
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