FXUS62 KMLB 150749 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 349 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... TODAY AND TONIGHT...ANTICIPATED SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE AREA WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. ADVERTISED PWAT SHOW TWO INCHES OVER S FL BY START OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PERIOD THIS AFTN. SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS S FL AT THIS HOUR AND THE NWD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING WITH ADTL ACTIVITY FROM MID DAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE SLY STORM LEVEL STEERING FLOW BRINGING WELCOME RAINS OVER MANY AREAS WELL INTO THE EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED A HALF AN INCH OVER MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE OKEE AND THE TREASURE COAST NORTH TO NEAR THE ORLANDO AREA. SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ARE FORECAST NORTH OF ORLANDO AND THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO VOLUSIA CO. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOWER VISIBILITY HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH STANDING WATER IN LOW SPOTS. DURING THE EVENING SLOW NWD MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH MOST ALL ACTIVITY ENDING AND OR SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY 11 PM. FRI-FRI NIGHT... ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE ERN GOMEX WILL GENERATE SERLY FLOW ACRS THE REGION THAT WILL TAP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF T-WAVE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PWAT VALUES ACRS CENTRAL FL WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 2.0"-2.2" BY DAYBREAK FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY UP THE ERN SEABOARD WILL AMPLIFY AS A 70-80KT H25 JET MAX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DIGS ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL SHUNT THE ATLC RIDGE INTO S FL...ALLOWING THE H85-H50 STEERING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DVLPG SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE ACRS E CENT FL. LOW LVL SERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM...BUT THE SW STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP IT PINNED NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE... 70PCT ALONG THE COAST N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...60PCT ELSEWHERE. WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...OVERALL STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. BECAUSE THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE AIRMASS WILL BE THE TROPICS...H50 TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH BLO -6C. H85-H50 LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP EITHER...AVERAGING BTWN 5.5-6.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. FURTHERMORE...THE MID LVL WIND PATTERN DOES NOT PLACE THE FL PENINSULA ON THE RECEIVING END OF ANY SIG POCKETS OF VORTICITY...WHILE THE H30-H20 JET MAX REMAINS WELL N OF CENTRAL FL AND KEEPS UPR LVL DIV WEAK AT BEST. HIGH CLOUD AND PRECIP COVER SHOULD COUNTERACT THE NORMALLY WARM S/SW FLOW ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG. DEEP MOISTURE AND SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE M70S. SAT-SAT NIGHT... ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE N AS THE FRONTAL TROF DAMPENS OUT AND THE T-WAVE PUSHES INTO THE WRN GOMEX. S/SERLY FLOW WILL DVLP THAT WILL PULL A SLIGHTLY DRYER H100-H70 AIRMASS FROM THE N CENTRAL CARIB INTO THE FL PENINSULA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR SATURATION ABV H50...BUT OVERALL PWAT VALUES DIMINISHING TO 1.7"-1.8" BY AFTN. THE DIMINISHING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND HIGH MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS CLOUD DECKS ABV H70 TEND TO LIMIT SFC HEATING. ADD IN THE FACT THAT WINDS THRU THE COLUMN WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NWD...AND PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BLO 50PCT WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR. STORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE SAME REASONS AS ON FRI. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S ALONG THE COAST... INTERIOR WARMING TO THE L90S. MIN TEMPS L/M70S. SUN-WED... UPDATE TO FOLLOW... && .AVIATION... MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING NWD ACROSS KOBE-KFPR THROUGH 14Z WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION BY MID DAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL REGION. BEST PERIOD FOR MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDS AT TAF SITES WL OCCUR FM 17Z-23Z. OCNL CIGS FM 030-040 WL OCCUR IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH OCNL-FQT LTG AND WND G30-35KT IN STRONGER TS. && .MARINE... UNIFORM SEA HGHTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF 2-3 FT WL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH S TO SSE WINDS. SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS NEAR CST WITH 1-2 FT. LOCAL WIND WAVES WL OCNLY BE DISRUPTED BY STORMS NEAR THE COAST WITH SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT PUSHING COASTAL STORMS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLC WATERS. FRI-SAT... FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THRU FRI. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE N ON SAT AS THE TROF DAMPENS OUT. A GENTLE SERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS 2-3FT. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS MOVG OFFSHORE FRI AFTN/EVNG...SCT SHRAS/TSRAS SAT. SUN/MON... ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REPOSITION ITSELF OVER N FL AND THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE START OF THE WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE WILL DVLP AS A RESULT...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 3-4FT AREAWIDE. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 86 75 / 50 30 70 40 MCO 93 74 89 75 / 50 40 60 30 MLB 89 73 88 77 / 60 40 70 30 VRB 88 73 88 76 / 70 40 70 30 LEE 93 75 89 76 / 50 30 60 30 SFB 93 76 88 76 / 50 40 60 30 ORL 93 75 89 76 / 50 40 60 30 FPR 88 72 88 76 / 70 50 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST LONG TERM....BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 15 Aug 2013 07:49:53 +0000
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