FXUS62 KMLB 151946 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 346 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 .DISCUSSION... THRU TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS REASSERTED ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING A DOMINANT WEST COAST BREEZE THAT IS INTERSECTING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ON THIS SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. SO HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTN WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS BETWEEN ORLANDO AND THE COAST. GIVEN THE RATHER EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION TODAY...STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BUT DEBRIS RAINS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. WED-THU (PREVIOUS)...THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE NE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING STILL PLUNGED WELL INTO THE SE U.S. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL REST ACROSS N FL THRU THU TO KEEP MID-LATITUDE INFLUENCES BARELY AT BAY FOR THE PENINSULA. AN OUT-OF-SEASON COOL FRONT TRAVERSES OLD DIXIE TO PROMOTE A PRE-FRONTAL-LIKE POSTURE FOR LOCAL WIND FLOW AND TRAJECTORIES. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS RE-LOCATED S ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...A RESULTING WARM SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO GOVERN LOCAL TSTORM DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING...FAVORING AN ATLANTIC COAST SKEW INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON AND LINGERING ON INTO THE EVENING. WILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR THE ECSB TO DEVELOP...PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LATE...WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TREASURE COAST. STORM CHANCES GENERALLY HIGHER TOWARD THE COAST COMPARED TO WELL-INLAND...AND HIGHER FOR AREAS NEARER TO AVAILABLE CONCENTRATED MOISTURE WITH ENCROACHING COOL FRONT TO N (ESPECIALLY THU). OVERALL POPS BETWEEN 45-60 PERCENT. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. FRI-MON (PREVIOUS)...MODELS OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT MOVING DRIER AIR DOWN THE PENINSULA FOR FRI AS THE COOL FRONT ERODES. MEX NUMBERS WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR POPS. EXPECT SFC RIDGE TO ENDEAVOR TO RE- ESTABLISH NORTHWARD AND BREAK DOWN THE SW FLOW PATTERN. FLOW WEAKENS AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN AND LOCAL CIRCULATIONS ALLOWED TO RESUME...EVEN AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF. SUFFICIENT HEATING AND PLENTY OF EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION... STORMS FOCUSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH 22Z ESP TIX/MLB. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEBRIS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGH 00Z-02Z THEN VFR ALL SITES. A STRONGER SW FLOW ON WED WILL PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. BUT EXPECT A FAST MOVING WEST COAST BREEZE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN TODAY. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-TUE...RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH S/SW WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS. WED-THU...SFC RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF LOCAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL TEAM WITH A WEAKENING OUT-OF-SEASON COOL FRONT SITUATED TO THE NORTH AS TO FOSTER A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE. LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT... STRONG STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 90 76 93 / 40 60 40 50 MCO 75 91 75 93 / 30 60 40 60 MLB 76 90 78 90 / 30 60 40 60 VRB 74 92 76 92 / 40 60 30 50 LEE 76 91 77 93 / 40 60 40 50 SFB 77 92 77 94 / 40 60 40 60 ORL 76 91 78 93 / 30 60 40 60 FPR 74 91 75 91 / 40 60 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ KELLY/WEITLICH/LASCODY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 19:46:46 +0000
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