FXUS62 KMLB 170815 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 415 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FL KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW 15-20 MPH WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE. HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (MARTIN/ST LUCIE/OKEECHOBEE). DRIER AIR NORTH OF ORLANDO WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THERE SO HAVE DRAWN A RANGE OF POPS FROM 30 PERCENT NORTH TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AROUND 90 NORTH HALF WITH A LITTLE MORE HEATING/LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY. GFS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH (MOST PRONOUNCED AT 850-700MB) LIFTING NW FROM THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST (ASCENDING) SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IMPINGING ON THE TREASURE COAST FROM THE ATLC. THU-FRI...STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA THURSDAY AND USHER IN A WETTER PATTERN INTO LATE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW PW VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50-60% THURSDAY AND AROUND 50% FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SAT-TUE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE PREVALENT LOW TO MID LEVEL W/SW FLOW WILL FAVOR BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ONSHORE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MCO-TIX WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS AS WELL AS C-G LIGHTNING. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY BUT WILL RETURN TO THE COAST BY 00Z AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH LEG AND AROUND 15 KNOTS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SO LESS THAN IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH LEG AS SFC TROUGH LIFTS NW ACROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS TURN SE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS. THU-SUN...INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE AREA THU AND THEN SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO FRI. E/SE WINDS THU BECOME SOUTHERLY INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BUT MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BOTH FRI AND SAT EVENINGS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FEET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 75 87 75 / 30 20 50 30 MCO 90 74 90 74 / 30 20 50 30 MLB 87 75 88 74 / 40 20 60 30 VRB 86 72 89 74 / 50 30 60 30 LEE 90 74 90 75 / 30 20 50 30 SFB 90 75 90 75 / 30 20 50 30 ORL 90 75 90 76 / 30 20 50 30 FPR 86 73 89 74 / 60 30 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....WEITLICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 17 Jul 2013 08:15:23 +0000
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