FXUS62 KMLB 181923 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 323 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT-TOMORROW...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ALONG THE U.S. ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST FL. THE WEAKENING AND FLATTENING FRONT SEPARATES DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BUT WILL LIKELY RETAIN A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT FROM DAYTONA THIS AFTERNOON TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY THU MORNING...WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFUSE WITH TIME. CURRENT FORECAST VALUES ARE WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR RELATIVE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING/LOCATION. SO...NOTHING TO BE GAINED FROM TRYING TO FINESSE THE FORECAST. INTO THU...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER SUPPORT AN ATLANTIC ONSHORE FLOW FOR CENTRAL FL. GFS HINTS AT SOME ATMOSPHERIC DRYING FROM THE NORTH...BUT THU POPS STILL IN THE SCT RANGE AS SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MARITIME FLOW AND AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS/STORMS INLAND DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED SLOPPY SEA BREEZE. MIN TEMPS LOW/MID 70S...MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT. FRI-SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD PROMPTING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THUS THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. MOISTURE LEVELS ALLOWED TO DROP AS LOCAL ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIESTEMPORARILY. MAV GUIDANCE HAS POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR MOST PLACES...BUT THAT IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. WILL KEEP POPS 20 PERCENT NORTH OF MELBOURNE AND 30 PERCENT SOUTH. FOR SAT...LOOK FOR DRIER AIRMASS TO HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE USHERS INLAND. SUN-TUE...(FROM PREVIOUS) A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET STREAM FLOW OVER AL. THIS WILL PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD UPPER LOW SHOULD INDUCE A BAROCLINIC SFC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO GIVE HIGH PROBABILITIES THAT A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ONCE IT PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NHC/WPC KEEP LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MID WEEK AS WELL. REGARDLESS OF HOW THESE FEATURES DEVELOP...IT APPEARS WE ARE HEADED TO A RETURN TO WET AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... VCSH COND WITH TEMPO 2SM SHRA WILL CONT WITH GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING BACK TO COASTAL SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. G25KT STILL POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE...AND AROUND 15KTS OFF THE BREVARD COUNTY COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHTER WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS. INCREASED WINDS AND A LENGTHENING FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD/MAINTAIN SEAS UP TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE AND 5-6FT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THRU THU. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THU...THERE WILL BE A SLOW DECREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THRU THE AFTERNOON. FRI-SAT...ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FURTHER ON FRI AND SAT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 4-5FT ON FRI AND 3-4FT SAT. SUN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE 15-20 KNOTS AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 86 74 87 / 30 40 20 20 MCO 73 89 72 90 / 20 40 20 20 MLB 78 86 76 87 / 40 50 30 30 VRB 75 87 74 88 / 40 50 30 30 LEE 73 89 72 90 / 20 40 20 20 SFB 73 89 72 90 / 20 40 20 20 ORL 74 89 74 90 / 20 40 20 20 FPR 74 87 74 87 / 40 50 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....RL AVIATION...99 PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 18 Sep 2013 19:23:22 +0000
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