FXUS62 KMLB 190850 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 350 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY... COLD FRONT OVER THE BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STOUT NWRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A THIN BAND OF DEEP MID LVL VORTICITY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GOMEX ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE MEAN RH THRU THE H100-H70 LYR IS CLOCKED IN AT OVER 90PCT. IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG MID LVL DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE PANHANDLE. UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IS DISORGANIZED AND WEAK AS THE 90KT CORE OF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT IS TOO FAR AWAY TO LEND SIG UPR LVL SUPPORT. MID LVL OMEGA ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY SINKING OR NEUTRAL AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND N FL...WHILE LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR ARE LARGELY AOB 5.5C/KM. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE KMLB RADAR IS SILENT OVER LAND...OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHRAS OVER THE WEST PENINSULA. TODAY-TONIGHT... THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWD PUSH THRU THE DAY...AIDED BY THE DEEP N/NWRLY PUSH PROVIDED BY ITS POST FRONTAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP W/NW FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT ACRS THE ERN SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL VEER STEADILY FROM N/NW THIS MORNING TO THE NE THIS AFTN. AS THE FLOW BCMS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT BOUNDARY...IT WILL SLOW AND STALL IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NRN BAHAMAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT PWAT VALUES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH THE 2.0 MARK IN SOME AREAS...AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP FORMING IN THE FRONTS SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH TEPID MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT... ANTICIPATE ONLY LOW-TOPPED SHRAS WITH QPF GENERALLY AOB 0.10. WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE NE AS A TIGHT PGRAD BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS DVLPG OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL THEN PUSH ONSHORE THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD...BUT AGAIN...TOTAL QPF WILL BE AOB 0.10. TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL PRODUCE A N TO S TEMP DIFFERENTIAL THIS AFTN WITH MAXES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WARMING INTO THE L80S...BUT HOLDING IN THE L70S N OF STATE ROAD 44. ORLANDO METROPLEX WILL BE IN THE M/U70S...WHILE THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WARM INTO THE U70S/L80S. DURATION OF THE POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE RAPID ONSET OF THE NE WINDS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE L/M60S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND IN TO THE M/U60S TO THE S...WHILE MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS MAY NOT FALL BLO THE 70F MARK. WED... LARGE AND RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WITH VALUES IN THE NORTH AROUND 1.4 INCHES AND 1.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THIS VORT MAX AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE...MOS POPS CONTINUE RATHER HIGH...40 PERCENT NORTH AND 60 PERCENT SOUTH. SINCE OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT...HAVE SHAVED ABOUT 10 PERCENT OFF MOS POPS. THOUGH THE DEPTH OF ONSHORE FLOW IS QUITE SHALLOW...ABOUT 4000 FEET...WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GREATEST CHANCE WOULD BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. THU-FRI... THE RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THU BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. ACCORDINGLY...MOS POPS DIMINISH AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FRI AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD START TO EASE. SO WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...MOS POPS DECREASE TO AROUND 10 PERCENT EXCEPT 15-20 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTH...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THOSE VALUES. SAT-TUE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PLOW THROUGH SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS POPS IN THE 20S ON SUN...HOWEVER THE MODEL IS SHOWING DRYING OCCURRING THEN. WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP FOR SUNDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW IS ON TAP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT WITH DRY AIR MASS WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY RAIN CHANCES. AFTER A MILD SAT...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW SUN-TUE. MOS INDICATES SOME MID 40S MON MORNING AROUND THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS COOL SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE MOS VALUES BEHIND THIS FRONT. && .AVIATION... THRU 19/15Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM NW TO N/NE BLO 10KTS...N OF KISM- KDAB PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN BR WITH AREAS CIGS BTWN FL004-FL008. BTWN 19/15Z-19/23Z...OCNL N/NE SFC WND G22KTS N OF KLEE-KISM-KMLB...SCT MVFR SHRAS S OF KLEE-KSFB-KEVB...ISOLD TO THE N. AFT 19/23Z...NNE LLWS PSBL ALL SITES...SCT MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KOBE...ISOLD TO THE N. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CAPE HATTERAS ACRS THE FL BIG BEND TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL FL TODAY BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE NRN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SHOWING A FRESH NWRLY BREEZE DOWN TO THE PALM COAST BUT NOTHING OVER THE LCL ATLC AS OF PRESS TIME. THIS WILL CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE ERN SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AND PUSHES A TIGHT LOW LVL PGRAD INTO THE LCL ATLC. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE STEADILY THRU THE DAY AS SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS SHIFT FROM W/NW AT DAYBREAK TO NE...FRESHENING TO 20-25KTS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY MIDDAY THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET BY LATE AFTN. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTN...THEN 6-7FT NEARSHORE AND 8-9FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WILL EXPAND THE 12Z START OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET...THEN AREAWIDE AFT 21Z. WED-SAT...CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK RATHER POOR THROUGH LATE WEEK AS NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN SPEEDS. THE LATEST GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON SAT AS A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS SHOVED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SNEAK PEEK AT SUNDAY SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT DAY ON TAP AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 64 76 63 / 20 20 30 20 MCO 77 62 78 63 / 30 20 30 20 MLB 77 70 80 70 / 30 30 40 20 VRB 79 71 80 71 / 30 30 40 30 LEE 76 60 77 60 / 20 20 30 20 SFB 76 62 77 62 / 20 20 30 20 ORL 77 62 77 63 / 30 20 30 20 FPR 79 71 80 71 / 40 30 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....LASCODY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Tue, 19 Nov 2013 08:50:18 +0000
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