FXUS62 KMLB 220925 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 420 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY... ...STRONG FRONT WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF SUNDAY AND MONDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION WITH STOUT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. AMPLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. WHILE THURSDAY EVENINGS SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE A RATHER MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE STATE (PWATS ~1.6 TO 1.9)...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS ALONG WITH TONIGHTS MODEL RUNS INDICATE A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA. DRYING IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER COMBINED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) EXIST ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY...AM EXPECTING IT TO FEEL WARMER. ADVERTISING LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EXTEND OFFSHORE FROM NE FL ON SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND A RATHER DRY AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 80S. AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES. SATURDAY NIGHT...A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SE THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS WITH STRENGTHENING N/NNE LOW LVL FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO NRN SECTIONS AND A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP TWD S FL WITH WINDY NE WINDS EXPECTED AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND SE STATES. BAND OF FRONTAL CLOUD COVER START ACROSS THE NRN AREAS AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE VERY STRONG LOW LVL NE FLOW AND PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND OR WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NRN ZONES TO THE MID 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. HAZARDOUS SURF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES DEVELOPING. MONDAY...THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MID ATLC ON MONDAY KEEPING BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL DRYING BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED ATLC SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SRN AREAS. ROUGH SURF AND THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL S/W TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND THEN TWD THE MID ATLC WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM SE LA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NE ALONG THE SE ATLC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW FROM ESE TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TUE AFTERNOON. E CENTRAL FL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TUE AFTN AND ALSO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SWEEP THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY WED MORNING WITH BREEZY WNW/NW FLOW AND DEEP LAYER DRYING TAKING HOLD WED AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TUESDAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S TUE NIGHT EXPECT COOLER TEMPS BY WED NIGHT IN THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLC THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH BREEZY NE LOW LVL FLOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL COOL TO AROUND 70 AND THE MID 70S SOUTH. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH. && .AVIATION... EXPECTING LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA. CIGS BETWEEN FL050-080 LIKELY THIS MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL SITES (MAINLY KMLB-KVRB-KFPR-KSUA). && .MARINE... TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUOY 41009 STILL SHOWING 15-20KTS SUSTAINED AND SEAS OF 7-8 FEET. EAST WINDS 15-20KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED (5-7FT NEARSHORE...7-9FT OFFSHORE). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 21Z. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN THIS EVENING AS OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND. WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT (03Z SATURDAY) ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SATURDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE ENE TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH A RESIDUAL SWELL OF 4-6 FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE EARLY SUNDAY...INCREASING NNE WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY AND REACH OVER 10 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT. CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT. SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW VEERS WITH WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE BOATING DAY WITH STRONG WIND AND HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 62 81 61 / 10 10 10 20 MCO 83 62 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 MLB 81 68 82 68 / 20 10 10 20 VRB 82 67 82 67 / 30 10 10 20 LEE 82 61 82 60 / 10 10 10 10 SFB 83 62 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 82 63 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 FPR 81 66 82 65 / 30 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ULRICH LONG TERM....VOLKMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Fri, 22 Nov 2013 09:25:47 +0000
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