FXUS62 KMLB 240951 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 451 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW FL...SUPPORTED BY A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ONE OR TWO CELLS LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN THIS BAND MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ORLANDO. THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER BACK ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND WILL REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE AND SOUTH FL BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MORE NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. LOWEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY (40 PERCENT) WITH MOST AREAS AT 60 PERCENT BUT THIS IS ONLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS AFTN. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE W/NW. SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WILL OCCUR SO HAVE PUT UP A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH SO TEMPS WILL FALL AFTER SUNRISE BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS INCREASING SUNSHINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S BEFORE RETREATING. TONIGHT...COLD AND DRY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S MOST AREAS... UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK BELOW 10 MPH SO ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SUN-SUN NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN FURTHER WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX SLIDING SOUTHWARD SUN OVERNIGHT. THIS AS A RESULT OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH ECFL LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SLIGHT MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP...LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR SPRINKLES...FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUN. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR HIGHS WITH M/U 60S FORECAST AREAWIDE. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THIS DAY AROUND 10 MPH. WINDS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 MPH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S/L50S. MON-MON NIGHT...ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE LATEST SYSTEM SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WHISKS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH W/WNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY TO PROMPT ANOTHER ISSUANCE OF EITHER A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND ADVISORY WITH WIND SPEEDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE L/M 60S NORTH OF I-4 AND M/U 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE LOWER 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. COLDER AIR AGAIN POURS DOWN THE PENINSULA MON OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES TO L40S...EXCEPT M/U 40S IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED MON OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE WIND CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE M/U 30S IF COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT. STAY TUNED. TUE-FRI...CONTINUED COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL TUE/WED...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THU AND SLIGHTLY BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE EXTENDED PRECIPITATION FREE. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TUE/EARLY WED WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATE ON FRI. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE NEAR THE AREA. && .AVIATION... IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL AFFECT TERMINALS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE W/NW WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... TODAY/TONIGHT...SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. PEAK GUSTS WELL OFFSHORE ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT NOAA BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 SO WILL KEEP THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD TIL 4 PM. AS THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO LOOSEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THINK THE ADVISORY WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS BUT A CAUTION WILL BE NEEDED TO REPLACE IT. THE THREAT FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUN-SUN NIGHT...A WEAKER/SHORT-LIVED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH WNW/NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. WINDS BACK BRIEFLY TO WSW/SW SUN EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN WILL VEER TO WNW LATE OVERNIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK MON MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 KTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-6AM ALMOST AREAWIDE. SEAS FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT THRU THE DAY...BUT WILL BUILD BACK UP TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATE SUN OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASE. MON-MON NIGHT...WNW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH FULL SCA CONDS/BORDER GALE DURING THE DAY ON MON...WITH WIND SPEEDS COMING BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20-22 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE/4-6 FT NEAR SHORE BY LATE DAY/EVENING. TUE-WED...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS TUE OVERNIGHT/WED. NW/N WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 20 KTS WELL OFFSHORE AND 15-20 KTS CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST FOR THIS PERIOD. SEAS MAINLY 5-7 FT OFFSHORE AND 3-5 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST AT TIMES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THIS PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUN-WED...COOLER AND OVERALL DRIER DURING THE PERIOD...BUT COULD REALIZE SOME SPRINKLES LATE SUN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED. LOW RH MINS IN THE 30S AREAWIDE ON SUN...BACK INTO THE 40S AGAIN MON-WED AFTERNOONS. DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON MON BEHIND THE LATEST FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 39 64 48 / 60 0 0 20 MCO 68 41 67 50 / 60 0 0 20 MLB 71 43 66 51 / 60 0 0 20 VRB 74 43 66 51 / 60 0 0 10 LEE 65 39 67 50 / 40 0 0 20 SFB 67 41 66 50 / 60 0 0 20 ORL 67 41 66 52 / 60 0 0 20 FPR 74 43 66 50 / 60 0 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA- INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KELLY LONG TERM....SEDLOCK PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 09:51:37 +0000
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