FXUS62 KMLB 251430 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 930 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE 9 AM TEMPERATURES THAT WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE FOR WINDS AND WORDING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION CURRENT...EAST-WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TODAY-TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL GET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY DAYS END...THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNRISE MON MORNING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BUT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN UPWARDS OF 1.15 INCHES LATE OVERNIGHT SUN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE NOT GREAT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE 150 KT UPPER JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND LIE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH CHANCE WORDING HERE AFTER 4AM. THE THREAT SPREADS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES BY SUNRISE MON MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL FOR HIGHS WITH M/U 60S FORECAST...EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. WITH A CURRENTLY LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH DURING THE DAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST MAY VEER TO E/ESE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING AND ARE FORECAST INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE U40S TO L50S. MON...RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHWARD FROM A POSITION NEAR CENTRAL CWA AT SUNRISE. WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NORTH AND CHANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...GREATER IMPACT WILL BE ONSET OF STRONG/GUSTY W/NW WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT...DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WILL LIKELY PROMPT A WIND ADVISORY. MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION ON 10-15 MPH NW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF THE WEEK LATE MON/EARLY TUE. MINS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOST OF REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...EXCEPT MARTIN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER FL THROUGH MID WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DOMINATES SOUTHWARD FROM DEEP CUT-OFF CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER (DRY) REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS REGION LATE TUE. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN COOL...GENERALLY 60S FOR MAXS AND 40S FOR MINS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LOCATIONS NORTH OF ORLANDO MAY ONLY REACH UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS WED AFTERNOON. REMAINING BREEZY TUE...WITH WINDS STILL NEAR 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AGAIN IN THE 30S MANY AREAS. THU-SAT...TRANSITION TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS INTO TEXAS. PLEASANT PERIOD IN STORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS... LOWER 70S DAYTIME AND 50S OVERNIGHT. && .AVIATION...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT NW WINDS TODAY...BACKING SW LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INCREASE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE OVERNIGHT NORTHWARD. && .MARINE... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON... BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL HAS BEEN RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 4 FOOT SEAS THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THE OTHER BUOYS HAVE BEEN RECORDING 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS JUST OFF THE BEACH. THE CMAN BUOYS AT TRIDENT PIER AND SEBASTIAN INLET HAVE BEEN RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM AROUND 20NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION TODAY-TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW CURRENT SCA TO EXPIRE AT 09Z/4AM FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. WILL ALSO BEGIN PERIOD WITHOUT ANY CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD LATE TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA NW WINDS 10-15 KTS EARLY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK TO SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY NECESSARY AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. SW WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE HERE TO 15-20 KTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-DAYBREAK MON MORNING. INITIAL 3-5 FT SEAS FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT BY THE END OF THE DAY. SEAS 2-3 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD BACK UP TO 4-5 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING AS THE WINDS INCREASE. MON-TUE NIGHT...ONSET OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OCCUR FOLLOWING FROPA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE... THEN ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FREQUENT GUSTS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF GALE WATCH/WARNING LATER TODAY. SEAS BUILD 2-4 FT NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT 5-8 FT OFFSHORE. GRADIENT BRIEFLY LESSENS A LITTLE TUESDAY...BUT STILL SCA CONDITIONS...THEN INCREASES AGAIN BEHIND REINFORCING FRONT LATER TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS AGAIN /BRIEFLY/ FLIRTING WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-7 FT OFFSHORE. WED-THU...WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY WED AND RELAX TO 10-15 KT. SEAS REMAIN HIGH IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS VEER NE 10 KT WED NIGHT AND E/SE 5 KT THU. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGES TODAY...MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR TO L/M 30S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONT WILL ENTER ECFL LATE OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BUT STRONG MID/UPPER DYNAMICS. THE RESULT COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM BREVARD-OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT TWD SUNRISE MON MORNING. DISPERSIONS GENERALLY POOR TODAY. MON AND TUE...FIRE WX CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW RH WILL POSE CONTROL PROBLEMS IF ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR. MON...STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS DEVELOP WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH LIKELY AND VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES...HOWEVER MIN RH LIKELY TO REMAIN 45-50 PERCENT. TUE...MIN RH LIKELY TO FALL TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 40 PERCENT WITH HIGH DISPERSION VALUES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 62 51 64 38 / 0 40 10 0 MCO 66 52 64 41 / 0 30 10 0 MLB 65 49 69 41 / 0 20 30 0 VRB 66 47 73 41 / 0 10 40 0 LEE 65 52 64 42 / 0 40 10 0 SFB 65 52 67 41 / 0 30 10 0 ORL 66 54 66 42 / 0 30 10 0 FPR 66 47 75 42 / 0 10 40 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI FORECASTS...WIMMER PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 14:30:47 +0000
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