FXUS62 KMLB 260942 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 442 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY BEHIND LATEST STRONG FRONT... ...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK... ...COLDER TONIGHT WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT... CURRENT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS BEEN SHUNTED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE WEST. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS INVADING ECFL AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY. MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE U40S TO L50S WERE OBSERVED WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE 40S. WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE SUNRISE. TODAY-TONIGHT...THE STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR NORTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.10 INCHES WITH INSTABILITY RATHER POOR. WHAT THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE GOING FOR IT ARE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAM ENERGY APPROACHING 160 KTS OVERHEAD. GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH/UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER TODAY. AFTER MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE U40S TO L50S TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH A COUPLE L70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SSW/SW WINDS VEERING W/WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH NEAR 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS...UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE BEGINNING AT 10AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH WNW WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND NORMALLY COOLER AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S FOR LOWS. M40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE...NEAR LARGER CITIES...AND TO INCLUDE MARTIN COUNTY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REQUIRES AT LEAST TWO HOURS OF 35F DEGREE READINGS OR LESS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILLS NORTH OF I-4 AND NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OVER CALCULATIONS FOR THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM CITIES COMES OUT TO BE AROUND 35-37 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE. PRESENT NUMBERS ARE VERY MARGINAL WITH BORDERLINE CRITERIA POTENTIALLY BEING MET. FOR RIGHT NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUANCE AND ALLOW DAY-SHIFT TO MAKE FINAL CALL SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT. TUE-THU...CWA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE EAST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH AXIS TO OUR EAST. SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSIT FLORIDA WITH PASSAGE OF ASSOCIATED DRY/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS...MOST NOTABLY LATE TUESDAY. WHILE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME TUE COMPARED WITH MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL FORECAST. COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TUE/WED. SLIGHT MODERATING TREND BEGINS THU AS PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION MORE ZONAL. MAXS NEAR 70 SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA THU. MINS WED/THU IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN INTERIOR URBAN AREAS...UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. A 10 MPH WIND TUE NIGHT (FROM NW) AND WED NIGHT (FROM N) WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED AND THU...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE APPARENT TEMPS IN TEH 40S WILL PREVAIL. FRI-SUN...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAKLY ANTICYLCONIC DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIDGE FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TX. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FRI/SAT WARMS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT. WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN...PERHAPS CENTRAL PENINSULA SAT/SUN...BECOMING STATIONARY AND STRUNG OUT WEST-EAST AS BACKDOOR FRONT. LITTLE FORCING APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY. MAIN IMPACT MAY BE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER NORTHERN AREAS AND ONSET OF SMALL COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO FORECAST. && .AVIATION... STRONG COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE ECFL THIS MORNING WITH WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS PAST MID MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. CURRENT SSW/SW WINDS WILL VEER TO W/WNW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. A LOCAL AIRPORT (WIND) ADVISORY FOR ORL/MCO AND DAB REQUIRES SUSTAINED 25 KT WINDS WHICH MAY BECOME REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END N-S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL. MVFR CONDS IN -SHRA POSSIBLE BUT CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT EITHER SIDE OF 10 KTS THRU LATE NIGHT MOST TAF SITE LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT MODERATE SW WINDS 15-20 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL VEER W/WNW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS WELL OFFSHORE...20-25 KTS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES WITHIN 20NM OF THE COAST. WILL UPGRADE CURRENT GALE WATCH (15Z) TO A GALE WARNING OFFSHORE AND KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE NEAR SHORE (BEGINNING 12Z) THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY THRU TONIGHT. CURRENT 2-4 FT SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD 7-10 FT OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING AND 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE THRU THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL POUR DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OPPOSING THE WARMER/NORTHWARD FLOWING GULF STREAM. TUE-TUE NIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG WITH SCEC WINDS LIKELY NEAR SHORE AND SCA WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE. WED-WED NIGHT...FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY WED AND WHILE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER...STILL SHOULD SUPPORT 15 KT NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITHIN GULF STREAM. WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER AND VEER NE WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE BY EARLY THU. THU-FRI...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SLACKEN TO 5-10 KT AND VEER E/SE THU AFTERNOON...S/SW THU NIGHT...AND W/NW FRI. SEAS RESPOND TO LOOSENING GRADIENT BY FINALLY FALLING TO 2-3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT NUMBERS STILL REMAIN RATHER LOW. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. ONLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE U30S TO L40S ACROSS SOME PLACES THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY WILL STILL BE IN PLAY AS STRONG 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS PRODUCE VERY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES TODAY. TUE...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LIKELY TO BE MET HOWEVER MIN RH FORECAST TO REACH 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST OF 20-25 MPH AND GOOD DISPERSION SUGGESTING RADID SPEAD POTENTIAL SHOULD ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR. WED...MIN RH AGAIN 35-40 PERCENT BUT MUCH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS...AROUND 10 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 62 39 64 40 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 66 44 65 42 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 68 40 65 41 / 30 0 0 0 VRB 70 43 66 44 / 40 0 0 0 LEE 63 41 65 43 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 67 43 65 42 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 63 44 66 43 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 70 42 66 44 / 40 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN- NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA- SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK LONG TERM....SPRATT PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 09:43:00 +0000
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