FXUS62 KMLB 261815 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 215 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DRIFTING EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. ADVECTION OF ADDITIONAL DRYNESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL MANIFEST IN ANOTHER ROUND OF 50S TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND MINIMAL...IF ANY CLOUDS. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AHEAD SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE KEEPING COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER. MON-WED...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BUILDS NORTHWARD AND MERGES WITH A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK AND KEEP AN ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST...BUT MOS POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BUT GENERALLY STAY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT ALONG COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE TEMPS WILL BE MORE MILD...AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S. THU-SAT (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE STEADILY SOUTH INTO LATE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FROM THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STEADILY VEER...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SAT SO WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN. BUT ON THU-FRI IT LOOKS MARGINAL FOR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO LATE WEEK MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE WARM SEASON. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS NEXT 24H ALL SITES WITH NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO CIG OR VSBY. && .MARINE... WEAKENING OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION HAS LED TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY. COUNTERING NLIES WILL LEAD TO CHOPPY WAVES OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 3-4 FT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MON-THU...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET. && .FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENING RECOVERY OCCURS. SUN...CONTINUED DRY BUT A FORECAST NE WIND WILL GRADUALLY/SLOWLY BRING MOISTURE FROM THE MARINE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF AROUND 35 PERCENT FOR RHS POSSIBLE...ESP WEST I-4 CORRIDOR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 55 76 58 80 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 57 79 59 84 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 60 77 63 82 / 0 0 10 10 VRB 59 80 64 83 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 55 79 57 83 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 56 79 59 83 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 59 79 61 83 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 59 78 63 82 / 0 0 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....WEITLICH PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 26 Oct 2013 18:15:27 +0000
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