FXUS62 KMLB 261947 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 247 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...WIND GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING... ...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK... ...MUCH LOWER WIND CHILL READINGS LATE TONIGHT... CURRENT...THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED AS ADVERTISED. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAND MASS WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED FAST MOVING WEST TO EAST STRATOCU AND CUMULUS. TONIGHT...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENT WL ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE TROUGHING FROM THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD RELAXES. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST ARE AROUND 36 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST VOLUSIA LAKE GEORGE AREA AND AWAY FROM THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON/BETWEEN US 1 AND I 95 AND WEST IN BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES. TUESDAY...WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS MONDAY BUT SHOULD BE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA HOLDING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S. LATE TUE-THU...(FROM PREV DISC) A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WL TRANSIT FLORIDA WITH PASSAGE OF ASSOCIATED DRY/REINFORCING COLD FRONTS...MOST NOTABLY LATE TUESDAY. COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WED. SLIGHT MODERATING TREND BEGINS THU AS PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION MORE ZONAL. MAXS NEAR 70 SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA THU. MINS WED/THU IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND WITHIN INTERIOR URBAN AREAS...UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. A 10 MPH WIND TUE NIGHT (FROM NW) AND WED NIGHT (FROM N) WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF AREA FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED AND THU...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 40S WILL PREVAIL. FRI-SUN...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIDGE FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TX. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FRI/SAT WARMS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUN AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT. WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN...PERHAPS CENTRAL PENINSULA SAT/SUN...BECOMING STATIONARY AND STRUNG OUT WEST-EAST AS BACKDOOR FRONT. LITTLE FORCING APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY. MAIN IMPACT MAY BE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER NORTHERN AREAS AND ONSET OF SMALL COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO FORECAST. && .AVIATION... VFR ALL TAF SITES. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. THIS MAY TRIGGER AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS AT KMCO/KORL/KDAB AND MAKE FOR STRONG CROSS WINDS AT ANY NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE AROUND 09Z THEN PICK UP AGAIN AROUND 10-11Z TUESDAY. && .MARINE... CURRENT...BUOY 009 RECORDING WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND 4 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 010 RECORDING MUCH STRONGER WEST WINDS AROUND 33 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 39 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEAS. BOTH THE TRIDENT PIER AND SEBASTIAN INLET CMAN STATIONS WERE RECORDING WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS JUST OFF THE BEACHES...4NM AND 6NM... WERE RECORDING 2 FOOT SEAS. NICE EXAMPLE OF HOW THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE WATERS JUST OFF THE BEACH BUT GO A FEW MILES MORE OFFSHORE WHERE THE WINDS ARE FINALLY ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE SEA SURFACE THE SEA HEIGHTS INCREASE QUICKLY. TONIGHT...WINDS STAY STRONG...NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS. NEARSHORE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. BOTH THE GALE WARNING OFFSHORE AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEARSHORE CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM. THE MARINERS BRAVE ENOUGH TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BE CAUTIOUS FOR RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF LAND. TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WED-WED NIGHT...FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY WED AND WHILE GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER...STILL SHOULD SUPPORT 15 KT NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITHIN GULF STREAM. WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER AND VEER NE WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE BY EARLY THU. THU-FRI...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SLACKEN TO 5-10 KT AND VEER E/SE THU AFTERNOON...S/SW THU NIGHT...AND W/NW FRI. SEAS RESPOND TO LOOSENING GRADIENT BY FINALLY FALLING TO 2-3 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER... TUE...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT LIKELY TO BE MET HOWEVER MIN RH FORECAST AROUND 40 FOR MOST OF AREA WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST OF 20-25 MPH AND GOOD DISPERSION SUGGESTING RAPID SPREAD POTENTIAL SHOULD ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR. MIDWEEK...NW WINDS EARLY ARE FORECAST TO VEER ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW RH AREAS INLAND WL SEE SOME DURATION CRITERIA IN THE 30S...HOWEVER OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. ONSHORE WINDS PAST MIDWEEK FOR TEH COAST AND INLAND WL KEEP LOW AFTERNOON RH MODERATED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 41 62 40 61 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 42 64 42 63 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 44 64 43 63 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 44 65 45 65 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 42 63 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 42 64 42 61 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 43 64 43 63 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 44 66 44 65 / 10 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA- INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 19:47:52 +0000
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