FXUS62 KMLB 270155 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 855 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES... ...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING... .UPDATE...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH NW LOW LVL WINDS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN TWD LAKE COUNTY FROM THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NW WINDS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 5 MPH MOST AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA INCLUDING METRO ORLANDO TO SRN BREVARD COUNTY. MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS. ZFP FCST UPDATE WILL REFINE SKIES...WITH CLEAR OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS. THANKSGIVING DAY...A COOL/DRY START TO THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S WITH 70 DEGREES WITHIN REACH TREASURE COAST/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THESE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. FRI-NEXT WED...(PREV DISC) FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI- SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN- WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION... VFR THRU 12/00Z. A REINFORCING DRY FRONT THU AFTN WILL INCREASE NW WINDS TO 13-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...ALREADY SENT EARLY MARINE UPDATE TO ALLOW SCA TO DROP FOR BREVARD NEAR SHORE WATERS. CURRENT SCEC/SCA AREAS LOOK GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TO 13-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 16-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 20 NM MILES OFFSHORE TO THE WELL OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS IN THE GULF STREAM. THANKSGIVING DAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND PERHAPS GULF STREAM NEAR SHORE SOUTH LEG...WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20 KTS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR SHORE. NEAR THE COAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS BUT FURTHER OUT TO 20NM OFFSHORE WINDS A STOUT 15-20 KTS. FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ON THIS DAY. SEAS BUILDING AWAY FROM THE COAST 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE/GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE. FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PROVIDE A NORTH WIND FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ELONGATES WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 42 66 41 62 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 45 66 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 45 69 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 46 72 45 68 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 45 64 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 44 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 46 66 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 45 72 44 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ VOLKMER/KELLY PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 01:55:45 +0000
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