FXUS62 KMLB 280109 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 909 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND THE GFS SHOWS THIS CONTINUING. SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL SLACKEN LIKE LAST NIGHT AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. INSTEAD...THE BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTO THE COAST WITH SOME POSSIBLY REACHING WELL INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE ALREADY ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE WILL NOT CHANGE 30-40 PERCENT SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING... MOS VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT LOOK TOO LOW. WEEKEND...THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWED SOME EARLY MORNING COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG MOST OF THE COAST ON SAT. THEREFORE...THE DAY MIGHT START OUT QUITE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE PULLING FARTHER AWAY ON SUNDAY AND WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO CAUSE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TO EASE. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE. && .AVIATION...ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BRING A FEW MVFR PERIODS TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH SAT MORNING AND LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE CYCLONIC LIKE LAST NIGHT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG. ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS REACHING WELL INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-SAT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND SHOWER COVERAGE THE GREATEST. SOMEWHAT OF A SURGE IN THE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY FORCE A GREATER COVERAGE OF COASTAL SHOWERS TOWARDS THE PRE DAWN HOURS. WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH AND EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WIND SURGE FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF AN ADVISORY NEARSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH SAT MORNING INTO SAT EVENING. SAT NIGHT-SUN...THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW DECREASING NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE MORE LIMITED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ FORECASTS...LASCODY RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...BRAGAW PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 28 Sep 2013 01:09:30 +0000