FXUS62 KMLB 301426 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 925 AM EST SAT NOV 30 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING CLOUD COVER THINNING OUT TO THE EAST OF THE COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTH. SKIES EAST OF THE COAST FROM FORT PIERCE SOUTH WERE CLOUDY AND RADAR SHOWED HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF WIND CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHED PAST GRAND BAHAMA. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WAS APPROACHING THE BREVARD VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND PONCE INLET. THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) AT THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH PUSHING THE RAIN TOWARD THE COAST. MORNING UPDATE WILL LOOK AT POTENTIAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER. WINDS LOOK GOOD BASED ON THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST TO BREAK DOWN...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BUT REMAINING BREEZY. IT WILL ALSO BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAST AND HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST...20 PERCENT INTERIOR...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS IS THIS MORNING WITH SOME DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN. THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER A LITTLE MORE TO THE ENE. AS A RESULT...THE GFS PULLS SOME HIGHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST ASSOCD WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) POPS FOR THE COAST. SFC WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. SUN/MON...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE BACKING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO TAIL END OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PASS OFFSHORE BY SUNSET MONDAY. SHALLOW/MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADVECT SMALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ONSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING COASTAL COUNTIES. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT WILL PROLONG ISOLATED SHOWERS CHANCE INTO MONDAY...EVEN INLAND. NW WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL RETURN DRIER AIRMASS. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY MINS NEAR THE COAST. TUE-FRI...ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW TUE BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC MID-LATE WEEK WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING 12+ DM AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR BERMUDA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH SINKS SLOWLY SE FROM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DROPPING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN SETTLING TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PENINSULA THU/FRI. GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW VEERS TO EASTERLY WED/THU AND SE FRI...TAPPING 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE. FORECAST WILL THEREFORE REMAIN DRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE NEXT THREAT OF SHOWER LIKELY HOLDING OFF TIL NEXT FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS FALL TO NEAR CLIMO TUE IN WAKE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT...THEN WILL REBOUND NEAR TWO DEGREE PER DAY WED-FRI AS ONSHORE/VEERING FLOW SLOWLY MODIFIES AIRMASS. && .AVIATION... IFR CEILINGS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST OF KMCO BECOME MVFR/VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW COMING IN FROM THE EAST PUSHES THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST AS SHOWERS COME OFF THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE INLAND. LOOKING AT PREVAILING MVFR/VFR AFTER 15Z NORTH OF KFPR AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION OCCASIONAL CIGS NEAR 010 AGL WILL OCCUR AT MCO/SFB/DAB THROUGH 12Z BUT THEN SHOULD DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE. EXPECT A HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS CEILING TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE COAST THROUGH 00Z WITH BASES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 035 AGL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TEMPO MVFR CONDS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE COAST. SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH TO THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. && .MARINE... CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...REPORTS FROM BUOY 009 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL HAS SHOWN STEADY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH A SHARP INCREASE FROM 7 FEET TO 8 AND 9 PLUS FEET THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS BUILDING THE SEAS. THE SCRIPPS BUOY 4NM EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL WAS RECORDING 5 FOOT SEAS AND THE BUOY 6NM NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET WAS RECORDING 7 FOOT SEAS. THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA WAS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN. WINDS/SEAS MAY BE A BIT LOW BUT WILL WATCH THE BUOY REPORTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION TODAY/TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. COASTAL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME UNIFORMLY NE ACROSS THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET...AND A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT AS PRES GRAD SLACKENS SUPPORTING AROUND 15 KNOTS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRANSITION TO ADVISORY FOR THE GULF STREAM ONLY WITH A CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. SUN-WED...NE/E FLOW LESSENS BELOW 15 KT BUT LONG ONSHORE FETCH MEANS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. WILL EXTEND SCA FOR SEAS WITHIN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF INCREASE OF NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT MONDAY WILL BUMP WINDS TO NEAR 15 KT AND SUSTAIN SEAS 5-6 FEET WITHIN GULF STREAM...AND 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE. WIND/SEA CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WED AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ UPDATES.....WIMMER IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Sat, 30 Nov 2013 14:27:00 +0000
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