FXUS62 KMLB 310743 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 343 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT...AXIS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TODAY THEN THE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. MAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING WHICH CAUSES STEERING FLOW TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE SEA BREEZE STORMS TO OCCUR A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DIP INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS USUALLY SIGNALS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE GFS DOES SHOW A BAND SINKING INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS THE NORTH (40 PERCENT) AND ALSO FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL SECTIONS. SOME LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE INDICATED INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO WILL ONLY GO 30 PERCENT THERE. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LINGERING EARLY TONIGHT...WILL CARRY 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. THU-FRI...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/VORT MAX (THE MID LEVEL REMAINS OF DORIAN) MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THE MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS BY FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. STEERING FLOW WILL BE CHAOTIC BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BOTH TROUGHS...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ON THURSDAY...AND ALMOST COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES THE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY...AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES. POPS GENERALLY LOWER ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM 30 ALONG THE COAST TO 50 OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SAT-SUN...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AS FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...AND MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DRYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS A RESULT. THE GFS IS HITTING THIS HARDER WITH MAV POPS A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...TO HOLD POPS A LITTLE ABOVE AT 40 PERCENT ESPECIALLY WITH THE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MON-TUES...WEEKEND PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND INTO THE STATE ON TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE SYSTEM A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH...BUT BOTH SEEM TO POINT TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. GIVEN THE FAR EXTENDED TIME FRAME...WILL KEEP POPS AT CLIMO UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURE ARRIVES. && .AVIATION... VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCAL MVFR EXPECTED AS DAYTIME HEATING CUMULUS FORM. AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. INITIATION SHOULD BE WEST OF KMLB-KSUA BUT A FEW STORMS COULD FORM CLOSER TO KTIX & KDAB. GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS SHOULD BE KISM-KMCO-KSFB-KLEE. SOME PUSH BACK TO THE COAST COULD OCCUR KTIX-KDAB THIS EVENING. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS SHOULD NUDGE SOUTH TOWARDS ABOUT CANAVERAL LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS INDICATED ACROSS THE WATERS...EXCEPT BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. EAST SWELL HAS BEEN SMALLER THAN INDICATED BY THE WAVE WATCH SO WILL CAP SEAS AT 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 3 FEET NEAR SHORE. AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD STAY OVER THE MAINLAND BUT A FEW COULD PUSH BACK ACROSS THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THU-SUN...AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGE IS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST INT HE AFTERNOONS. SOME EAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 2-3FT...WITH UP TO 4 FEET FAR OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOONS...WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE CAPE OVER THE WEEKEND LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 75 87 73 / 40 30 50 30 MCO 92 75 91 74 / 40 30 50 30 MLB 89 75 89 73 / 30 20 40 20 VRB 88 74 89 73 / 30 20 40 20 LEE 92 76 90 75 / 40 30 50 30 SFB 92 76 91 75 / 40 30 50 30 ORL 92 76 91 75 / 40 30 50 30 FPR 87 74 89 72 / 30 20 30 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY LONG TERM....MOSES PALMBAYWEATHER.info
Posted on: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 07:43:35 +0000
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