FXUS64 KHUN 021006 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 406 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS STALLED OUT FROM A COLUMBUS MS TO A CHATTANOOGA LINE. AN AREA ON LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS MOVING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS JUST UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH HALF AN INCH UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OTHERWISE AMOUNTS NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE. KEPT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE SATURATED LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEY DIFFER IN THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT BOTH BRING QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WANT TO SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE INTRODUCING THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. LOOKING OUT TO NEXT WEEK GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT THE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. STUMPF && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CST MON DEC 1 2014/ FOR 06Z TAFS...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CLUSTERS OF LIGHT/MOD SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. CIGS HAVE PREDOM LOWERED NEAR/JUST BELOW IFR THRESHOLDS...AND THIS TREND IS XPCTED TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HRS...BEFORE CIG HEIGHTS CLIMB MORE INTO THE 1-2K FT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT XPCTED TO BE SIG INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. 09 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 62 50 62 46 / 50 20 20 20 SHOALS 55 49 60 45 / 50 10 20 20 VINEMONT 63 50 61 47 / 50 20 20 10 FAYETTEVILLE 58 49 59 44 / 50 20 30 20 ALBERTVILLE 65 49 62 47 / 20 20 20 10 FORT PAYNE 66 49 63 46 / 20 20 20 10 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
Posted on: Tue, 02 Dec 2014 10:07:57 +0000