FXUS64 KHUN 091116 AAA AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 616 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z TAFS && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 AM CST SUN MAR 9 2014/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE TN VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION. A SHEARED TROF AXIS IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY, A VORTICITY MAX IS ALSO SHEARING OUT A BIT OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE, AND AN UPPER LOW WAS DROPPING SWD INTO NWRN MEXICO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A DECAY OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER TN. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NE-SW BUT EXHIBITED WEAK TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ALONG IT. FOR TODAY, CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE ALONG WITH RESULTING TEMPS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE SHEAR ZONE APPROACHES. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH THRU THE DAY AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW IN MID-UPPER LEVELS PERSIST. -DIVQ VECTOR FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL TO DOWNWARD MOTIONS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY THRU TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN SATURDAY, TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE U50S-M60S AS TEMP ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL LATER IN THE DAY. MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN THRU TUESDAY WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE NWRN MEXICO WAVE WILL CUT ACROSS THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AS THE ROCKIES WAVE PRODUCES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WILL BE OUT OF SYNC WITH EACH OTHER, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY IN OUR AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY, BUT THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BE SPLIT NW AND S OF OUR AREA. THE LOW OVER KS WILL CUT EAST ALONG THE OH RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR NASHVILLE TN TO OXFORD MS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECENT MODEL UVV AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS DEPICTED ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM. SIS OF NEAR ZERO OR JUST BELOW ARE ALSO FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT, SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TSRA CHCS THRU WED MORNING. AFTER FROPA, STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU THE DAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FLURRIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO MOISTURE DEPTH CONCERNS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR. HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED UNCHANGED WITH A QUICK MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS AS FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR DAYS 8-9 WHICH COULD BE OUR NEXT SHRA/TSRA PRODUCER. AK && .AVIATION... FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, LOW MVFR CLOUDS FROM TN MAY DEVELOP OVER BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A DROP TO LOW END VFR CIGS FOR NOW. SL.77 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
Posted on: Sun, 09 Mar 2014 11:16:28 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015