FXUS64 KHUN 271639 AAB AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1039 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 .UPDATE... MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS FIRST PERIOD. && .DISCUSSION... AFTER A NICE AND BRIEF CLEARING TREND EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/LOWER SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. THIS HAS AT LEAST ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS MANY AREAS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...AND A FEW DEGREES MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER. NNWLY FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME FAIRLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE INFLUX OF SOME DRIER AIR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME HEADING INTO MID WEEK. FOR THE REST OF TODAY THOUGH...CLOUD/TEMP GRIDS WERE REFRESHED BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED ATTM. 09 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 512 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ FOR 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 01Z BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCT025 DECK FOR NOW AFTER 00Z. SL.77 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/ UPPER JET CORE OF 130-140KT DIVING SE THRU THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY ALLOWING A RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT INTO THE MS, OH AND TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT E THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, PRECIP RETURNS IN MIDDLE TN SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NE THIS MORNING, SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S-L50S. A CLEAR-MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH COLD NELY FLOW DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 20S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT FZFG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER LOW OFF SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MAKE A RIGHT TURN THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND THRU THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. DECENT POSITIVE DPVA AND -DIVQ VALUES INDICATE GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING, BUT MOISTURE REMAINS A LARGE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF LEAD SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC BASED UPPER TROF. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FED BY E-SELY FLOW AND PSBL CAD WILL LIKELY DELAY WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY. A MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE SFC LOW TRACKS NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND A LLJ AXIS IS ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE MOISTURE DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP. AK && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 16:40:16 +0000
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