Fascinating story but it is necessary to read the Forbes and New Scientists articles behind it to make any sense of it. According to New Scientists report, the two stars that have 90 percent probability of reaching the solar system the closest are named as Hip 85605 and GL 710. The Hip 85605 might reach the solar system in 0.13 to 0.65 light years away, while the GL 710 might take around 0.32 to 1.44 light years in the next 1.3 million years. The estimate on the current position of the Hip 85605 and GL 710 is not accurate and could still be wrong. However, the threat posed by the movements of these stars nearing the solar system is not a joke. OUCH! In plain English (which I am beginning to suspect the English in imitation of us North Americans are beginning to eschew) means these two stars will pass the sun at the nearest point at a distance of between 200 and 600 times the distance to Pluto. They may pass close enough to disturb some objects in the Oort cloud - ice and dust debris that forms comets and exists out beyond the orbit of Pluto. What the scientists are saying (and this is not new) is that if a star swings by that close it will stir up the Oort cloud and send in a significantly larger number of comets than we have been used to seeing - one or more of which might hit us. Or might not. Who can say. What is new is that some scientists have gone out, looked at 50,000 stars and identified those several stars that might actually be heading this way within the next 5 million years or so. I think writer Edgar Jr. Reyes did manage to get out that the closest approach of the second orange star, GL 710, is roughly 1.3 million years away. Poor man never got around to telling us when the other and more dangerous star (HIP 85605) will make its approach (which is after all the whole point). He says the estimate is not accurate and could still be wrong what he meant to say is it is not precise. A fault in accuracy indicates we have a wide spread of years in which the approach could occur. Falling within that range is never wrong And imprecise measurement , however, may lead to a spread in the wrong place which would be wrong. I am thankful for Mr. Reyes for choosing an article with no possible political implications to muddle up so that it can serve as an exemple of what is happening to so much of science journalism in the internet age. It does not matter how smart or correct or agreed scientists are (and I think their competence is tolerable) in terms of public policy if a significant part of the science press is this inarticulate. And it is becoming critically important that the public receive depoliticized articulate information about science to help inform their decisions on any number of issues. We can scarcely blame the public for being ignorant of science in the face of this sort of education. I do not ask that Mr Reyes be a leftist or a rightist but merely that if he writes about astronomy he knows what a light year is and how it differs in meaning from a conventional year. I would suggest that Mr. Reyes do quit his job at the IB times and go back and study journalism and/or science if he is going to be tasked with writing these things. This is an interesting topic but the article is absolutely (as they would say in the IB Times newsroom) dreadful. Oh dear, whatever are we to do? au.ibtimes/articles/577776/20150102/orange-dwarf-star-solar-system-earth.htm#.VKfpOrkfpYf
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 13:57:27 +0000
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