First-term blues nothing new JOHN RUDDICK THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 03, 2014 – – – FEAR not, Liberal Party supporters. Early unpopularity is often an indicator of long-term success while initial jubilation is often a harbinger of a fall. Unpopularity is the trademark of reformist governments in the first phase of truth-telling after national self-¬indulgence. Far from a crisis, current polling is ‘‘situation normal’’. Bad polling in the early stages of a government is an antidote to hubris. It toughens up the government for the long haul and the eventual recovery earns the respect of the nation. The key is to hold the line. As Margaret Thatcher said in the depths of her polling woes just over a year into her first term, “we shall not be diverted from our course. To those waiting with bated breath for that favourite media catchphrase, the ‘U-turn’, I have only one thing to say: ‘You turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning.’ ” Today’s pundits look back on the Howard era as one long success story, but John Howard had acute political headaches in his first and second terms. Polling in year one was solid, but collapsed so badly in years two and three there were fears the government would be a one-term wonder. One Nation attracted many voters and gun ownership restrictions drove away others. Spending cuts, the waterfront dispute and changes to industrial relations and the GST were all unpopular. Seven ministers and Howard’s chief of staff resigned because of the code of ministerial conduct. Labor hit the lead in year two of Howard’s first term with polls blowing out to 57-43 two-party preferred. Labor remained in front until election day. The second term was worse. A few months out from the 2001 election bookmakers offered $4 on Howard v $1.20 for Kim Beazley. From there polling firmed up until Howard could lose only to a Labor leader promising to be like him. Pundits remember the Thatcher government and Reagan administration as a golden age of widespread support but, although those governments were popular for most of their time in office, initially their polling was dire. Eighteen months into Thatcher’s first term three cabinet ministers knocked on her door and suggested she resign. The Conservatives went on to win three more elections and convince British Labour to accept much of Thatcher’s agenda. Ronald Reagan’s approval near the first term halfway mark was 35 per cent with a disapproval of 56 per cent. Reagan remained in the polling doldrums for 18 months but made history in the 1984 US election by winning 49 out of 50 states and his dominance passed on to his vice-president, who won in 1988, the first time since Franklin Roosevelt for a party to win the White House in three successive elections. A left-of-centre example is president Bill Clinton. Two years after his election, the Democrats were massacred in the 1994 mid-term elections but he recovered to win handsomely in 1996 and complete his second term with good polling. Can Labor celebrate the Victorian election as a federal omen? Hardly. When Paul Keating was prime minster every state was Liberal. When Howard was prime minister every state was Labor. When Julia Gillard was prime minister almost every state was Liberal, most with thumping majorities. Last weekend’s two-party preferred result of 48.5 per cent for the Victorian Liberals was not bad in light of that trend. The last time a first-term government lost an election in this country was 1998 when Peter Beattie defeated Rob Borbidge in Queensland. Pundits saying the Victorian election is a disaster for Tony Abbott said the same of Howard after Borbidge’s defeat. An alternative to difficult polling in the early stages of a government is to be met with a wave of public adulation. There are exceptions (Bob Hawke and New Zealand’s John Key) but initial jubilation is often an omen of failure … just ask Kevin Rudd, Gough Whitlam, Jimmy Carter and Clement Attlee. Since polling began in the US mid-century the two presidents with the highest approval ratings were George HW Bush (86 per cent after the liberation of Kuwait), who lost his bid for re-election the following year, and George W, Bush (88 per cent after the 9/11 attacks), who limped to a re-election and subsequently crashed in the polling. If a government sticks to its principles (despite a chorus of demands to reverse), and those principles are in the national interest, sentiment will turn. The federal government’s budget is the medicine Australia needs. Medicine tastes bad but is beneficial in the long term. The biggest threat to the budget is not the polls, it’s whether the partyroom is weak enough to listen to pundits or wise enough to be ¬guided by history. When Thatcher delivered her U-turn speech to the Conservative Party conference in 1980, a large banner in the audience read, “Keep Right On Maggie.” The Liberal Party membership’s message to Prime Minister Abbott is the same. John Ruddick was a candidate for federal president of the Liberal Party this year.
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 02:39:18 +0000
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