For Abdullah, Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose a mortal threat. A leaked diplomatic cable from 2008 disclosed his pithy advice to America on dealing with Iran: “Cut off the head of the snake!” he demanded. But instead of going for this simple act of decapitation, America chose to talk to the serpent. Worse, Mr Obama actually reached a deal with the reptile last November when Iran agreed to observe temporary limits on its nuclear programme. That rapprochement was the outcome of months of secret diplomacy, hidden from just about everyone, including Saudi Arabia. Today, American diplomats candidly admit this was a calculated deception. When the covert talks with Iran started last year, Saudi Arabia was top of the list of governments to be kept in the dark. One US official said the reasoning was simple: telling the Saudis would have jeopardised everything. Avoiding a war with Iran was in the kingdom’s best “interests”, added the diplomat, and the Saudis would just have to live with it. In the same way, Abdullah and Mr Obama will not settle their differences today. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia and America will just have to live with the fact that they will remain at odds over the most pressing crises in the Middle East. Behind this rift lie two highly sensitive factors which the two leaders will probably forbear to discuss. The first is that Saudi Arabia is ruled by a shrinking circle of ageing and enfeebled men.Abdullah is about 90, although no one knows his exact birthday – possibly not even him. Like our own George VI, the old king had to conquer a terrible stammer before ascending to the throne in 2005. Now his reign is clearly drawing to a close. The Saudi throne has always passed between the sons of Abdul Aziz ibn Saud since his death in 1953. The trouble is that most of the first king’s progeny are already dead – and the survivors are very old. Abdullah’s chosen successor, Crown Prince Salman, is 78 and unwell. Like the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, Saudi Arabia is suffering the paralysis of gerontocracy. #InstaFrame
Posted on: Mon, 31 Mar 2014 23:11:39 +0000
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