For SE QLD and NE NSW: ~Til midweek, mix of clouds/sun. Very hit and miss isolated showers~ ~Around midweek, slight to medium chance of thunderstorms~ ~If thunderstorms do occur midweek, some could contain small hail~ ~Subject to change due to uncertainty~ Midweek is looking really interesting, not in terms of any watertight guarantees of thunderstorms but rather, the setup itself. A small secondary front or surface trough of low pressure with an intense trough higher up in the atmosphere and cold air up there (almost -25 degrees around 6km up) looks set to pivot up over us around the backside of the developing multi-centred east coast low offshore)... with potentially a fair bit of moisture despite the southwesterly to southerly winds. If everything lined up perfectly, the most extreme scenario could be rain and thunderstorms with plenty of small hail in some spots (the strong forcing from aloft overcoming the limited instability)... but if the wobbling east coast low went too far south, it could just as easily be mostly fine. Its an interesting setup regardless of whether we get thunderstorms/rain or not. The 1st graphic shows the most extreme or strongest potential scenario for thunderstorms while the 2nd graphic shows the weakest scenario. As you can see, theres still a big range of possibilities there at the moment because the weather setup is still sensitive to changes (Iceman):
Posted on: Sun, 24 Aug 2014 05:51:04 +0000
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