For anyone who is watching the potential cyclone situation in the Coral Sea, at this stage based on current modelling outlooks and analysis of satellite imagery, it looks as though the most likely scenario is that a weak cyclone will approach the Queensland coast between Townsville and Proserpine over the weekend, where it seems most plausible that it will be pushed in a curved path south and southeast down the coast as it comes under the influence of a longwave trough and may be pushed NE due to interaction with a stronger tropical cyclone to its east and an amplifying trough to the south. From this point on, who knows. Most likely is that its movement would slow and turn west again, possibly whilst intensifying. By this time, it looks as though there would be another trough coming through that would cause it to move SE well offshore. Now that Ive written all that, all I can say for sure is that the Coral Sea basin is one of the most unpredictable in the world so dont listen to a word I say!
Posted on: Thu, 06 Mar 2014 09:44:56 +0000