***Forecast Discussion*** .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING WIND AND BLIZZARD HEADLINES NOW INTO THIS SUNDAY EVENING...AND LOW WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST ON SATURDAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST...EXTENDING FROM IOWA NORTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH HAS WINDED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING...WHEN WE SAW WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 64 MPH AT GARRISON AND 50 MPH GUSTS COMMON ELSEWHERE. MUCH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MOMENTARILY ALONG TO BEHIND A STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXPECTED. ALREADY SEEING WINDS UPSTREAM RAMPING UP. SURGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE WINDS THIS MORNING...ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG EMBEDDED WAVE. AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 18Z AS THE MID LEVEL S/WV PUSHES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HEADLINES AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ALREADY HAVE HAD NO-TRAVEL ADVISORIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNED COUNTIES WITH THE INITIAL WIND SURGE THANKS TO THE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW MY NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES RECEIVED ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE INCLUDING ROAD CLOSURES TODAY AS EVEN STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH MAYBE ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW THIS MORNING. HAVE NOTICED CONDITIONS AT ROLLA HAVE BEEN IN BLIZZARD THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH 1/4 MILE VIS OR LESS COMBINED WITH 40+ KNOT WINDS. WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA (WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL) WILL SEE A PERIOD OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...NOW OFF TO OUR NORTH...SPREADS SOUTH THIS MORNING AND COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS WITH THE SECOND PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE COUNTIES IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AS IS AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE SNOW 12-18Z...AND HOW LONG THE SNOW WILL LAST (NEED 3 HOURS OR MORE FOR A BLIZZARD). NOTHING CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND WILL BLOW THANKS TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S WITHIN THE LAST 6-18 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED TONIGHT AFTER THE WIND AND BLIZZARD HEADLINES ARE EXPIRED. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014 THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. WIND CHILLS FROM 30 BELOW ZERO SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 50 BELOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE STATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THE HIGH WIND AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE CLEARED FROM THE SHORT TERM. BY WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE MANITOBA AND ROTATE INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DRY ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...GENERATING BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE GREATEST JET DYNAMICS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA...DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Posted on: Sun, 26 Jan 2014 12:10:17 +0000