Forecast Thoughts... The rainfall event is expected to taper off over the next few hours across much of the Southern Arkansas, and in some cases is pretty much over in Southwestern Arkansas. I can look at radar trends and tell why the flash flood watch was canceled and the reason is because the atmosphere was overworked and could not regenerate enough *umph* or in meteroligical terms boundary layer heating/instability to support a thunderstorm complex rolling through the area within the next 6 hours like previous model guidance and strong confidence/strong wording from me/NWS had. The forecast has changed significantly through Friday Night. Rainfall amounts ranged from 2-4 inches across the region, with the winner or looser depending on your preference would be Denton, TX seeing FOURTEEN *14* INCHES of rainfall on the day Thursday The more conservative forecasts would of worked out just fine for this event even though there was strong support from several models that we were going to see a bunch of rain. The EMCWF did fantastic forecasting this event with GEM very close and maybe even surpassing it. The GFS was too low on rainfall amounts, but did great with temperatures. The NAM model gave an overall idea, but could not be trusted with any finer details or tack and in cases did horrible with the rainfall totals. THEY ALL DID HORRIBLE ON THE FACT THAT IT WAS EXPECTED TO RAIN HEAVILY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. That is not the case anymore. - The going forecast is calling for a slight chance of rain through Friday. Widespread cloud cover will keep temperatures steady through tonight and will keep temperatures at bay Friday. The temperature forecast will be tricky, but with the significant rainfall chances looking less likely...I can see mid 70s to low 80s for the region. The models are in the ball park with mid 70s and and they too do not show anything in terms of rainfall for the most part other than a possible shower...See no reason to shun. - And the weekend goes like this: A building ridge of high pressure across the four corners will be responsible for temperatures heating up. The EMCWF *European* /GFS models are quite different on respect for temperatures Saturday. I have gone compromise between the two with temperatures in the 80s looking more reasonable. I cant believe I am saying this...I am giving a nod to the GFS which is suggesting 87 on temperatures versus the nice 77 the EMCWF *European* is offering. A pop-corn shower and thunderstorm is possible across the southeast part of arkansas, but have left southwest portions dry for now. Temperatures will continue to heat up with some lower 90s likely by Sunday...An upper level impulse may provide a pop-corn shower or thunderstorm. Only a slight chance was warranted at this present time. The best chances of any activity will be across SE AR/MS where the best moisture flow/lift will be present with SW AR on the outer edge of this ring of fire. - It is looking like early week with be sunny and quite warm to hot with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s which is very typical for this time of year. The ridge of high pressure will build across the four corners with triple digit heat expected way out west. By mid-week...The west/northwest flow may send a boundary this way with a few disturbances...An enhanced chance of some rain and thunderstorms may be possible. The most trusty are the foreign models *EMCWF/GEM* European/Canadian* which suggest a surface low somwhere in the southern plains along with an upper level impulse..Moderate/strong instability combined with moist conditions may allow for some locally heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger storms. I am getting ahead of my self though, and for this forecast will simply introduce a 40% chance of rain and thunderstorms to the forecast and will update as confidence increase. - Looking ahead...The EMCWF/GFS/GEM models are suggesting the strong ridge of high pressure pushing towards the region from the west with temperatures on the rise. The GFS is especially bullish with 100-103 degree readings showing up in the long-range with the EMCWF showing this just to our west. Given this nearly 8-12 days out. Many things can and will change, but I am willing to bet that hotter conditions are on tap. At least middle 90s and possibly near 100 degrees may return to the region. Just in time for late July/August.
Posted on: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 06:22:05 +0000