Fracking investment and output is higher than I expected, but US demand is at a 40-year low, measured in relation to GDP. Compare these to assertions by Bank of America (contrary to its rival Citigroup) that both oil supply and demand are inelastic in the short-term, will take months to whittle into congruency, and set America up for economic stimulus, high prices ($90) and shortages the second half of 2015. However, LNG could see a multi-year glut. business.financialpost/2014/12/10/opec-is-finished-and-the-oil-crash-will-continue-warns-bank-of-america/?__lsa=fc9d-a350 If this Bloomberg picture is correct (and Salons Patrick Smith has a yet different take—salon/2014/12/11/these_are_lies_the_new_york_times_wants_you_to_believe_about_russia/), then for demographic and values reasons lowered demand is here to stay, meaning a diversified (not tied to oil consumption) economy has a good chance at avoiding contraction. Even while B of A warns that commodity-based economies could see 1930s—style depression. Still figuring this out—what the low-interest stimulus trap is, how tied Europe is to Russian fortunes, everything finance-related. I dont know much about any of this. There are already mysterious predictions of 2015 collapse in the finance field.
Posted on: Wed, 17 Dec 2014 15:13:17 +0000
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