Friday, 17 October, 2014 Forecasts for Ireland These situations will be close to alert levels if not quite there -- heavy rainfalls could develop tonight (15-25 mm possible) and strong winds are likely Monday night when the remnants of Gonzalo move rapidly through northern counties. Gusts to 110 km/hr are expected with squally showers. Having said that, Gonzalo will be much stronger when it hits Bermuda later today than its remnants will be in four or five days, so I just wanted to make sure readers understand that what they may see on the news is not the outcome were expecting in Ireland. Minor damage and relatively brief power outages could happen if current model forecasts are accurate. TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some brighter intervals this morning, then becoming windy and very mild, periods of rain arriving in west this morning and spreading further east by late afternoon and evening may become heavy at times, 15-25 mm rain potentially, with risk of thunder. Highs 16-19 C. Winds increasing to SSW 60-90 km/hr with gusts near south and west coast possibly exceeding 100 km/hr by late afternoon and evening. TONIGHT ... Very windy at first with gusts to near 100 km/hr from south veering southwest, and very mild, with the heavy rain continuing to make gradual progress eastward before ending. Some clear intervals possible in west before sunrise. Lows 11-13 C. SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks, showers more isolated although possibly more persistent in west Munster where heavy thunder or hail could develop, and winds generally not quite as strong as later today, from SSW at 40-60 km/hr, with highs about 17 or 18 C. SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, mild but turning a bit fresher during the day, passing showers or periods of rain developing. Moderate SW winds. Lows about 9 to 11 C and highs about 15 or 16 C. Some sunny intervals especially for eastern counties. Rainfalls generally about 5 mm on average. MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers both morning and late afternoon, then an interval of blustery weather (remnants of Gonzalo) overnight into Tuesday morning, with the moderate daytime westerly winds increasing to near gale force at times (gusts to 70 km/hr daytime but as high as 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas by late evening through early morning Tuesday). Lows about 7 C and highs about 14 or 15 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm by late overnight. TUESDAY ... Continued windy at first (WNW 60-100 km/hr) with showers clearing east, then breezy with sunny intervals developing, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C. Feeling quite cold in the strong winds although much improved conditions in most places except for a few exposed coastal locations ... high surf advisory with large waves and swells, morning high tides on west coast could be a concern as new moon is not that far away by 21st. WEDNESDAY ... Milder again with some sunny intervals, late showers or periods of rain developing. Lows 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C. OUTLOOK (Thursday 24th to Sunday 27th) ... Staying rather mild and breezy as the WSW flow continues. The winds should be generally less blustery too. Highs about 12-14 C. Less reliable guidance going further ahead still looks rather similar to that, into early November. See yesterdays discussion for thoughts on Britain and North America ... meanwhile I have posted a winter forecast preview in the winter discussion thread -- the bare bones of that would be a highly variable winter bringing some spells of wintry cold with potential for snow, also some stormy conditions at times reminiscent of last winter, but not as often since some calmer intervals under high pressure appear likely. While variable, temperatures will probably average close to normal but some spells will be considerably higher or lower than normal values. A more detailed forecast will be issued next week. My local weather on Thursday was fairly pleasant with passing clouds and a few sunny breaks, highs near 15 C. -- Peter for IWO
Posted on: Fri, 17 Oct 2014 06:56:56 +0000
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