From Gary McManus, Climatologist for the state of Oklahoma: What weve been missing for western Oklahoma throughout this year (and heck, most of the time throughout the 3.5 year drought period) are those slow-moving upper-level storms that sit out west across the four-corners region and just pump moisture up into the higher elevations of the High Plains. Instead, weve been getting a lot of either dry storm systems, or the systems weve seen this spring that move through so fast the storms dont initiate until well east of the area. Now, you asked for a miracle, I give you the F...B...I. Whoops, a bit of Hans Gruber there. You ask for a miracle, I give you a cutoff upper- level low that will do exactly as needed (we hope) and sit out across the four- corners region and really pump up the southerly winds for a few days, eventually getting copious amounts of Gulf moisture back into the western areas of OK, TX, KS and eastern areas of NM and CO. Then that upper-level low will send out impulses of disturbed weather that will provide opportunities for rainfall from about Wednesday through the weekend into early next week. How much, you say? Check out this lovely, beautiful MAGNIFICENT 7-day rainfall forecast from WPC. ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140519/7day-rain-forecast.gif 3-4 inches across western Oklahoma and the Panhandle??? Are you kidding me? In the past, those 7-day rainfall forecasts did end up being jokes, but this one is a bit different. We havent had one of those slow-moving systems like this in quite some time. It certainly has the NWS forecasters out in Amarillo that cover our Panhandle excited. WITH THE INCREASE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...THE SEVERAL DAYS OF POSSIBLE RAINFALL MEAN SOME RAIN WILL FALL ON ALREADY WET SOILS BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS OVER. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THIS EVENT EVOLVES. Thats one of the keys for any heavy rains that might occur both in the Panhandle and the far western areas of the state. The ground is so devoid of moisture that it has been baked hard by the sun the last few months. As we saw with the big rains back in September, a lot of that water fell so quickly that it ran right off into the streambeds and was never allowed to soak into the soil. As an example, take a look at the 7-day rainfall map from the Mesonet back on September 17. See the 5+ rains out in Cimarron County that actually caused the Beaver River to have some very rare flows in it? ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20130917/7day-totals.png ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20130919/beaver-river.jpg So this is definitely much-needed moisture. As for how it affects the short- and long-term drought impacts, well just have to wait and see on that. And the other good news is that even after the 7-day period, it appears like the chances for continued wet weather might continue. And, also per usual for a storm like this, things will get worse before they get better. With the strong dry south-southwesterly winds and the drought conditions, were primed for more fires. Thats why the NWS has issued fire weather watches and red flag warnings across the entire area.
Posted on: Mon, 19 May 2014 15:45:40 +0000
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