From Kay Geo Kanyanta. Hello my Friend, been a while. I have been. Silent observer of the political scene. Let me continue presenting my thoughts. WHY THE PATRIOTIC FRONT (PF) WILL WIN THE JANUARY 2015 BY ELECTION (PART 1) In any normal circumstance the ruling Patriotic front wouldnt have won the January 20 presidential by election. But given the situation in Zambia today, they will actually emerge winners in the afore mentioned elections. Many will see this as a biased argument but I would like to present a couple of facts here that make me hold this opinion. 1. Zambia lacks a convincing opposition party. It is clear to see that there is no stable, popular and convincing opposition party in Zambia. The two major opposition parties in Zambia, the UPND and MMD will find it difficult to challenge Lungus PF. MMD has been losing popularity since the 2011 loss. They have failed to reclaim their position on the political scene and the recent Nevers Mumba and RBs saga will work to their disadvantage. Apparently, MMDs loss seems to be PFs gain. The PF will pull a lot of votes from Eastern Province, which has since been an MMD stronghold. UPND has failed to either grow or gain the momentum required to defeat a ruling party, such as what the PF had in 2011. The UPND of 2011 is not different from that of today. The leadership hasnt been beefed up to pull votes from areas like Copperbelt, Luapula, Northern and Eastern, which apparently have the highest numbers of registered voters. Besides Southern province, UPND has no other proper stronghold. 2. Tribalism in Zambian Politics Regrettably, the politics in Zambia have remained tribal over the years. This is a fact we can not deny. Yes its not a good thing, but its bitter reality that we must live with until such a time when we will practice civilised and issue based politics. It is clear to see from previous elections how our country has been mapped out clearly on tribal basis. Southern Province for instance will definitely and undoubtedly vote for HH. Theres no denying that. The northerners and easterners have always seemed to be good partners and will apparently go for PF, of course owing to the decline of MMD. The Copperbelt, which has the highest number of registered voters will most likely twist their coin to the PF. Obviously because the PF has not yet lost popularity and people are still inlove with them. As such, a combination of Northern Zambia, Copperbelt, Eastern and the usual shared votes from Lusaka will hand PF a victory on January 20. Of course not ignoring the votes from other provinces that will boost PFs numbers. END of Part 1.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Dec 2014 18:44:39 +0000
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