From the just released Strategic Assessment of the Great Barrier Reef Region, Commonwealth paper, chapter 11: The declining condition of the Great Barrier Reef and its loss of resilience cannot be attributed to any single cause — it is almost certainly the result of cumulative impacts. It is of particular concern that the most serious risks to the Region’s values, and those least effectively managed, operate at broad scales. They originate well beyond the Region and affect an area much larger than the Region. Climate change remains the most serious long-term risk facing the Reef and is likely to have far reaching consequences for the Region’s environment. Future climate change predictions indicate sea level rises and temperature increases will continue and the ocean will become gradually more acidic. Extreme weather events are predicted to increase in severity. These changes will have dramatic effects on the health and resilience of the Reef. The impacts of climate change will be amplified by the Reef’s declining resilience and the accumulation of other impacts. In turn, the effects of climate change will exacerbate the effects of other impacts, potentially accelerating the decline in the condition of Region’s values. The urgent need to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has been recognised by almost 200 nations. At present, global emissions are not on track to achieve such a target,9 and even a two degree Celsius rise would be a very dangerous level of warming for coral reef ecosystems, including the Great Barrier Reef, and the people who derive benefits them.10 To ensure the Reef remains a coral-dominated system, the latest science indicates global average temperature rise would have to be limited to 1.2 degrees. Byrons Comment: ____________________ Why is this story buried in ABC Rural? Why isnt it front page? Its not even on the front page of the Qld part of the ABC site. Shame! It is crystal clear in the marine strategic assessment that the GBR is currently on a path towards severe degradation and the cessation of being a coral dominated system. While there are myriad threats to the long term health of the GBR, climate change is the elephant in the room (whale in the pool?). The strategic assessment makes clear that warming must be kept to 1.2ºC or less and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 moved rapidly towards 350 ppm for the Reef to have a long term future as a complex, diverse and robust ecosystem. Without this, much of the excellent and commendable management programmes and proposals are doing little more than palliative care. Given that atmospheric concentrations are pushing 400 ppm and the annual rise shows little sign of slowing, for a set of planning document regarding the GBR not to put the proposed expansion of Australian coal and gas extraction front and centre is a glaring oversight. While (of course) Australian contributions are only part of a global picture, our fossil fuel extraction compromises almost 5% of the global total (with a population of merely 0.3% of the global total). Thus, if the GBR is to have a future, Australian coal export cannot. There is no path towards 350 ppm (and so towards the long term viability of the GBR) that includes expansion in Australian fossil fuel extraction.
Posted on: Sat, 02 Nov 2013 20:30:31 +0000
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