GOOD MORNING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, HERE IS YOUR FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 10/21: SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY FOLLOWED BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY MORNING. NICE PERPENDICULAR LOOK OF THE H85 HEIGHT CONTOURS...RELATIVE TO THE H85 THERMAL PATTERN...SUGGESTS VERY GOOD CROSS CONTOURING...YIELDING GUSTY WINDS. UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG 2DRY S/W TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HELP WITH THE GENERATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON COLD AIR CU ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THEY WERE ABSENT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON OUR MOST RELIABLE MODEL GUIDE SET. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SE STATES IN ITS WAKE WED INTO THU. DEEP LAYER N/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION. THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND SOME ON THU AS UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AS THE LOW TO THE NE PULLS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THE TOTALLY DRY FORECAST MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT...SOME STRATO CUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO THU FOR PATCHY CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NIGHT AND WED IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. COOL AUTUMN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE COOL REGIME...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FROST FREEZE CONCERN IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS (WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ALREADY ENDED FOR THE SEASON). WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WED NIGHT...A BETTER CASE CAN BE MADE FOR FROST AND AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER....IT APPEARS THE SW MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE COLDEST AGAIN WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT ENDED MAY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FREEZE ISSUES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON THU...BUT REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. Overnight Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Tuesday Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 64. West northwest wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Night A slight chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. North northwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Posted on: Tue, 21 Oct 2014 06:56:36 +0000
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