GPPAC Alert by Dr. Andrés Serbin – Venezuela in Crisis: Economic and Political Conflict Drivers In the Post-Chávez Era This document outlines the political and economic drivers which have contributed to the current conflict dynamics in Venezuela. It was prepared between October 2013 and mid-February 2014, and as such it focuses mainly on the drivers and triggers that led to the crisis. In spite of significant social advances achieved under Chávez’ social policies, contemporary Venezuela is marked by profound political, economic and social polarization. The economic policies of the past decade, with the introduction of currency exchange controls, nationalization, and the declining productivity have led to a steady deterioration of the economy, in spite of high oil prices that generate fiscal revenues. The weak administration as seen in the reduction of Central Bank reserves and an accumulation of foreign debt, have led to severe inflation and shortage of goods, contributing to heightened political and social tensions. The situation has been exacerbated by a political stalemate and ideological differences within the ruling party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) on how to address the economic crisis. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan Government’s increased control over democratic institutions and its aggressive campaign against the opposition has seen the deterioration of democracy, where notably the opposition has no recourse to the institutions established by the rule of law, generating an environment of government impunity in both the economic and the political spheres. The clampdown on objective media reporting on situations not favorable to the narrative or image of the Government has contributed further to the lack of transparency and monitoring of government decisions and policies. Finally, Chávez’ reorganization of the military has brought their increased involvement in civil matters and contributed to the militarization of Venezuelan society. The shortage and scarcity of goods, widespread insecurity and allegations of corruption among the high ranks of the Government and military, coupled with human rights violations and the repression of anti-government protests and political opponents have contributed to the current explosive climate. As a result, there is a growing disaffection and sense of impotence among key sections of the population. Whilst the opposition has formed a coalition at the political level, it has not been able to maintain a united front for a viable political alternative. In the situation that has unfolded in recent weeks, there are signs of an increasing tendency to turn to violence on several sides, and a militarized response to the unrest.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Mar 2014 16:39:07 +0000
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