GUAR Despite news on impositions of additional margins on Buy side, trend remained positive for Guar as lack of rains in Rajasthan during the crop growth period kept sentiments firm for the commodity. Moderate export demand too kept trend firm for the commodityAs per NCDEX and MCX Circular, special margin of 10% will be imposed on the Buy side in all contracts w.e.f 11th Sep 2013The weather report from Rajasthan could be important for the next few days trend as moderate rains over next few days could be beneficial for the crop growth—as per reportsLatest reports from Rajasthan Agricultural Department shows area under Guar cultivation at 34.30 lakh hectares as on 22.8.2013. This is up from an area of 26.58 lakh ha same period last year. Overall Fundamentals had remained weak so far for the commodity for last few months as huge carryover stocks from last year, low export demand and better sowing reports from good rains in Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat – all these factors kept sentiments weak for the commodity in the Spot and the Futures markets for both Guarseed and Guargum. But with rates having fallen significantly over last few months, the export demand from US, EU and China have started picking up. Reports from APEDA indicate export realization from guar gum in April May was $611 million (Rs 3,227 crore, from 109,455 tonnes) against $1,428 million (Rs 7,600 crore, from 97,897 tonnes) in the same period last year. The exports have increased in amount terms but have fallen in Re terms due to the present low rates of Guar. With sowing nearly over, the impact of rains would still continue. Even with higher stocks in domestic markets, reports indicate stocks in the International markets for Guar which was high earlier, has fallen over last few months. This could spur further demand for the commodity in the coming months till December. And with Dollar remaining strong vs Re, the export demand would rise even further and could support the prices at these lower levels. Thus short term trend is likely to remain volatile but medium term trend looks Bullish for the commodity.
Posted on: Wed, 11 Sep 2013 08:51:42 +0000
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